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PolyConsensus
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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
BreakTheBankFlaznorpkeeptheblueflagflyinghighYEEES-but-why
Record (consensus markets)57% (28–21, n=49)74% (1443–503, n=1946)46% (323–386, n=709)no settled market
Consensus PnL$758K$298K$250K—
Tracked asPM monthly #2PM monthly #45PM monthly #26PM monthly #503
Sides with the consensus50% (12 of 24 open)62% (172 of 278 open)59% (67 of 113 open)no open consensus position
Strongest topics
  • NBA +48 pts n=22, ROI +45%
not computed yet
Weakest topic—College Basketball −3 pts, n=123——
Settled positions, side won100% of 31 at avg 52¢, ROI +46%48% of 490 at avg 48¢, ROI 0%100% of 228 at avg 51¢, ROI +47%—
Entries under 30¢0%32% (won 5% of 159)7% (won 100% of 15)—
Entries 30–50¢48% (won 100% of 15)24% (won 43% of 119)39% (won 100% of 88)—
Entries 50–70¢45% (won 100% of 14)14% (won 61% of 70)47% (won 100% of 108)—
Entries 70¢ and up6% (won 100% of 2)29% (won 95% of 142)7% (won 100% of 17)—

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

31 on the same side, 34 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

MarketBreakTheBankFlaznorpkeeptheblueflagflyinghighYEEES-but-why
Raptors vs. 76ers
opposite sides · consensus 76ers
Raptors $126K76ers $1.6K76ers $183K—
Spread: 76ers (-7.5)
opposite sides · consensus 76ers
Raptors $134K76ers $84376ers $2.5K—
Spread: 76ers (-6.5)
opposite sides · consensus 76ers
Raptors $31KRaptors $46976ers $1.9K—
Spread: 76ers (-5.5)
opposite sides · consensus Raptors
Raptors $23076ers $2.9K76ers $28K—
Spread: 76ers (-9.5)
same side · consensus Raptors
Raptors $30KRaptors $1.1KRaptors $4.1K—
Spread: 76ers (-10.5)
same side · consensus Raptors
Raptors $111Raptors $1.2KRaptors $5.6K—
Spread: Giants (-1.5)
opposite sides · consensus Giants
Giants $380K—Commanders $79K—
Spread: Giants (-2.5)
opposite sides · consensus Giants
Giants $144K—Commanders $40K—
Spread: 76ers (-8.5)
opposite sides · consensus Raptors
Raptors $110K—76ers $37K—
Spread: Giants (-3.5)
opposite sides · consensus Commanders
Giants $46K—Commanders $3.1K—
Spread: Timberwolves (-5.5)
opposite sides · consensus Timberwolves
—Timberwolves $3.8KMavericks $14K—
Spread: Suns (-6.5)
opposite sides · consensus Hornets
—Suns $545Hornets $17K—
Spread: Devils (-1.5)
opposite sides · consensus Capitals
—Devils $70Capitals $14K—
Commanders vs. Giants: O/U 40.5
opposite sides · consensus Under
Over $5.5K—Under $7.3K—
Spread: 76ers (-1.5)
opposite sides · consensus 76ers
—Raptors $8576ers $5.8K—
Avalanche vs. Senators: O/U 5.5
opposite sides · consensus Over
—Under $597Over $4.9K—
Avalanche vs. Senators
opposite sides · consensus Senators
—Avalanche $260Senators $3.7K—
Wild vs. Maple Leafs
opposite sides · consensus Wild
—Wild $1.8KMaple Leafs $715—
Raptors vs. 76ers: O/U 232.5
opposite sides · consensus Over
—Under $1.3KOver $326—
Mavericks vs. Timberwolves: O/U 226.5
opposite sides · consensus Over
—Over $1.0KUnder $115—
Pistons vs. Wizards: O/U 241.5
opposite sides · consensus Under
—Under $818Over $173—
Spread: Timberwolves (-9.5)
opposite sides · consensus Mavericks
—Timberwolves $757Mavericks $31—
Commanders vs. Giants: O/U 36.5
opposite sides · consensus Under
Over $146—Under $565—
Lightning vs. Blue Jackets: O/U 6.5
opposite sides · consensus Under
—Under $679Over $4—
Spread: 76ers (-4.5)
opposite sides · consensus 76ers
—Raptors $26376ers $204—
Raptors vs. 76ers: O/U 228.5
opposite sides · consensus Under
—Under $140Over $259—
Spread: Avalanche (-1.5)
opposite sides · consensus Senators
—Senators $316Avalanche $9—
Sabres vs. Blackhawks
opposite sides · consensus Sabres
—Sabres $143Blackhawks $164—
Avalanche vs. Senators: O/U 6.5
opposite sides · consensus Under
—Under $104Over $128—
Mavericks vs. Timberwolves: O/U 228.5
opposite sides · consensus Under
—Under $95Over $79—
Spread: Senators (-2.5)
opposite sides · consensus Senators
—Avalanche $23Senators $149—
Lightning vs. Blue Jackets: O/U 5.5
opposite sides · consensus Over
—Under $64Over $44—
Blues vs. Utah: O/U 6.5
opposite sides · consensus Under
—Under $7Over $62—
W75 Brisbane: Joanna Garland vs Olivia Gadecki
opposite sides · consensus Olivia Gadecki
—Joanna Garland $5Olivia Gadecki $58—
Spread: Stars (-1.5)
opposite sides · consensus Jets
—Stars $27Jets $13—
Spread: Timberwolves (-11.5)
opposite sides · consensus Timberwolves
—Timberwolves $2Mavericks $22—
Spread: Timberwolves (-6.5)
same side · consensus Timberwolves
—Timberwolves $5.7KTimberwolves $53K—
Jets vs. Stars
same side · consensus Stars
—Stars $405Stars $50K—
Pistons vs. Wizards
same side · consensus Pistons
—Pistons $3.3KPistons $40K—
Hornets vs. Suns: O/U 214.5
same side · consensus Under
—Under $5Under $21K—
Spread: Senators (-1.5)
same side · consensus Avalanche
—Avalanche $151Avalanche $11K—
Spread: Timberwolves (-4.5)
same side · consensus Timberwolves
—Mavericks $684Mavericks $7.1K—
Spread: Raptors (-4.5)
same side · consensus 76ers
—76ers $1.1K76ers $5.3K—
Pistons vs. Wizards: O/U 231.5
same side · consensus Under
—Over $301Over $6.1K—
Raptors vs. 76ers: O/U 226.5
same side · consensus Under
—Over $910Over $5.2K—
Pistons vs. Wizards: O/U 223.5
same side · consensus Over
—Over $3.4KOver $987—
Spread: Pistons (-6.5)
same side · consensus Wizards
—Wizards $3.3KWizards $1.0K—
Hornets vs. Suns
same side · consensus Suns
—Suns $3.9KSuns $339—
Mavericks vs. Timberwolves: O/U 227.5
same side · consensus Under
—Under $1.4KUnder $2.5K—
Spread: 76ers (-11.5)
same side · consensus Raptors
—Raptors $294Raptors $2.9K—