Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (56%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Raptors vs. 76ers: O/U 226.5
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (60%) · Over at 44¢ · $214 held · ends Nov 13
⚠️
Avoid
Over
5
Over 60%
$214.48
$2.49
44.4¢ → 43.5¢
-2% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 44%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Under 56%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Overavg 44¢ | $112.64 | $115.2 | +$2.56 | 57% 3457-2627 (6084) |
 nigiri99CTR<$100 | Overavg 45¢ | $92.25 | $92.25 | +$0 | 52% 353-330 (683) |
SU SunlineTicker<$100 | Underavg 56.5¢ | $5.65 | $5.5 | -$0.15 | 70% 1697-734 (2431) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Underavg 60¢ | $0.92 | $0.84 | -$0.08 | 51% 2573-2489 (5062) |
FO forecastication4CTR<$100 | Overavg 35¢ | $0.54 | $0.69 | +$0.15 | 27% 102-276 (378) |
Invested
$112.64
Value
$115.2
PnL
+$2.56
Record
57%
3457-2627 (6084)
nigiri99CTR<$100Invested
$92.25
Value
$92.25
PnL
+$0
Record
52%
353-330 (683)
Invested
$5.65
Value
$5.5
PnL
-$0.15
Record
70%
1697-734 (2431)
Invested
$0.92
Value
$0.84
PnL
-$0.08
Record
51%
2573-2489 (5062)
Invested
$0.54
Value
$0.69
PnL
+$0.15
Record
27%
102-276 (378)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
43.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.