Spread: Giants (-3.5)

6 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Commanders (43%) · Commanders at 61¢ · $141K held · ends Nov 13

Giants39¢Commanders61¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Commanders

Consensus Traders

Commanders 43%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$140.8K

Combined PnL

-$222.21

Smart Money Entry

60.9¢ → 61¢

+0% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralCommanders at 61%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Commanders

6 of 14 top traders (43%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Giants39%

Commanders61%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Commanders6 traders

Total Value$82.2K

Total Shares135,792

Combined PnL-$573.91

Giants8 traders

Total Value$58.4K

Total Shares148,490

Combined PnL+$351.69

Commanders — 43%Giants — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+24 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Commanders. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleGiants 100% · 1

Diverging

sniperGiants 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrGiants 83% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000Giants 62% · 13

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
nigiri99	Commandersavg 61¢	$76.1K	$75.5K	-$623.82	52% 399-371 (770)
BR BreakTheBankCTR	Giantsavg 39¢	$34.5K	$34.9K	+$442.3	42% 591-824 (1415)
TA takeormakeCTR	Giantsavg 39¢	$16.7K	$16.7K	-$0	58% 3342-2409 (5751)
UB ubetteruuuuCTR	Giantsavg 40¢	$4.0K	$4.0K	-$50.5	15% 21-117 (138)
38 38791873984189	Commandersavg 60¢	$4.2K	$3.6K	+$47	47% 2406-2681 (5087)
DA darkumbreon88	Commandersavg 60¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	-$0	61% 985-619 (1604)
AB abc51001CTR	Giantsavg 40¢	$1.8K	$1.7K	-$21.88	6% 2-30 (32)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Giantsavg 40¢	$661.57	$645.06	-$16.51	57% 3461-2635 (6096)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Giantsavg 39¢	$312	$312	+$0	20% 226-923 (1149)
NM NM-P	Commandersavg 60¢	$300	$300	+$0	59% 3613-2462 (6075)
GC GC-P	Commandersavg 60¢	$300	$300	+$0	31% 214-474 (688)
VeryLucky888	Commandersavg 60¢	$277.9	$265.81	+$2.91	52% 881-800 (1681)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382ARB<$100	Giantsavg 39¢	$174.12	$174.12	+$0	46% 143-171 (314)
└ Giants leg	Giantsavg 39¢	$104.52	$104.52	+$0
└ Commanders leg	Commandersavg 60¢	$69.6	$69.6	+$0
SU suntoriCTR	Giantsavg 40¢	$110.67	$109.29	-$1.38	46% 1802-2089 (3891)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Giantsavg 39.4¢	$35.05	$34.71	-$0.34	49% 1103-1157 (2260)

nigiri99

Commanders

Invested

$76,105.43

Value

$75.5K

PnL

-$623.82

Record

52%

399-371 (770)

BreakTheBankCTR

Giants

Invested

$34,499.42

Value

$34.9K

PnL

+$442.3

Record

42%

591-824 (1415)

takeormakeCTR

Giants

Invested

$16,666.62

Value

$16.7K

PnL

-$0

Record

58%

3342-2409 (5751)

ubetteruuuuCTR

Giants

Invested

$4,040

Value

$4.0K

PnL

-$50.5

Record

15%

21-117 (138)

38791873984189

Commanders

Invested

$4,226.68

Value

$3.6K

PnL

+$47

Record

47%

2406-2681 (5087)

darkumbreon88

Commanders

Invested

$2,232.35

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$0

Record

61%

985-619 (1604)

abc51001CTR

Giants

Invested

$1,750

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$21.88

Record

2-30 (32)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Giants

Invested

$661.57

Value

$645.06

PnL

-$16.51

Record

57%

3461-2635 (6096)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Giants

Invested

$312

Value

$312

PnL

+$0

Record

20%

226-923 (1149)

NM-P

Commanders

Invested

$300

Value

$300

PnL

+$0

Record

59%

3613-2462 (6075)

GC-P

Commanders

Invested

$300

Value

$300

PnL

+$0

Record

31%

214-474 (688)

VeryLucky888

Commanders

Invested

$277.9

Value

$265.81

PnL

+$2.91

Record

52%

881-800 (1681)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382ARB<$100

Giants

Invested

$174.12

Value

$174.12

PnL

+$0

Record

46%

143-171 (314)

Both legs:

Giants$104.5239¢+$0

Commanders$69.660¢+$0

suntoriCTR

Giants

Invested

$110.67

Value

$109.29

PnL

-$1.38

Record

46%

1802-2089 (3891)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Giants

Invested

$35.05

Value

$34.71

PnL

-$0.34

Record

49%

1103-1157 (2260)

Research grade

NeutralCommanders at 61%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Commanders

6 of 14 top traders (43%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+24 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Commanders. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleGiants 100% · 1

Diverging

sniperGiants 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrGiants 83% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000Giants 62% · 13

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Commanders wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance63.2%

61.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$58.28

Max Loss

-$100.00

158.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.