Raptors vs. 76ers: O/U 228.5

4 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Under (31%) · Under at 64¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 13

Over37¢Under63¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 31%

Total Value

$3.0K

Combined PnL

$78.09

Smart Money Entry

59.6¢ → 63.5¢

+7% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 64%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 13 top traders (31%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over37%

Under64%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares2,782

Combined PnL+$61.88

Over9 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares3,015

Combined PnL+$16.22

Under — 31%Over — 69%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Underavg 60.5¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$24.85	56% 4589-3558 (8147)
AN Anon455CTR	Overavg 37.5¢	$390.02	$425.77	+$35.75	49% 303-310 (613)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Overavg 39.5¢	$308.05	$318.31	+$10.26	50% 3551-3509 (7060)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Overavg 39.7¢	$255.58	$247.94	-$7.64	51% 2763-2694 (5457)
JU justaluckydude	Underavg 52¢	$150.74	$186.97	+$36.24	42% 331-451 (782)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Overavg 45¢	$149.29	$159.24	+$9.95	51% 2112-2051 (4163)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Overavg 48¢	$123.84	$90.3	-$33.54	52% 411-380 (791)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Overavg 39¢	$15.62	$16.42	+$0.8	35% 657-1232 (1889)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Overavg 38.9¢	$22.4	$10.74	+$0.34	49% 1100-1151 (2251)
38 38791873984189<$100	Underavg 59¢	$9.11	$9.35	+$0.23	48% 2366-2611 (4977)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 60.3¢	$10.22	$5.42	+$0.56	53% 1117-973 (2090)
TA takeormakeCTR<$100	Overavg 40¢	$2	$2.18	+$0.17	58% 3338-2406 (5744)
FO forecastication4CTR<$100	Overavg 33¢	$0.49	$0.61	+$0.12	28% 110-277 (387)

RN1

Under

Invested

$1,493.37

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$24.85

Record

56%

4589-3558 (8147)

Anon455CTR

Over

Invested

$390.02

Value

$425.77

PnL

+$35.75

Record

49%

303-310 (613)

6512395314597884CTR

Over

Invested

$308.05

Value

$318.31

PnL

+$10.26

Record

50%

3551-3509 (7060)

FlaznorpCTR

Over

Invested

$255.58

Value

$247.94

PnL

-$7.64

Record

51%

2763-2694 (5457)

justaluckydude

Under

Invested

$150.74

Value

$186.97

PnL

+$36.24

Record

42%

331-451 (782)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Over

Invested

$149.29

Value

$159.24

PnL

+$9.95

Record

51%

2112-2051 (4163)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Over

Invested

$123.84

Value

$90.3

PnL

-$33.54

Record

52%

411-380 (791)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$15.62

Value

$16.42

PnL

+$0.8

Record

35%

657-1232 (1889)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$22.4

Value

$10.74

PnL

+$0.34

Record

49%

1100-1151 (2251)

38791873984189<$100

Under

Invested

$9.11

Value

$9.35

PnL

+$0.23

Record

48%

2366-2611 (4977)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$10.22

Value

$5.42

PnL

+$0.56

Record

53%

1117-973 (2090)

takeormakeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

Value

$2.18

PnL

+$0.17

Record

58%

3338-2406 (5744)

forecastication4CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$0.49

Value

$0.61

PnL

+$0.12

Record

28%

110-277 (387)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 64%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 13 top traders (31%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance65.6%

63.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$52.33

Max Loss

-$100.00

152.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.