Pistons vs. Wizards: O/U 223.5

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Over (60%) · Over at 70¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 13

Over70¢Under30¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 60%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.2K

Combined PnL

$154.86

Smart Money Entry

53.4¢ → 69.5¢

+30% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 70%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 10 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over70%

Under31%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over6 traders

Total Value$700.86

Total Shares1,337

Combined PnL+$157.25

Under4 traders

Total Value$40.05

Total Shares83

Combined PnL-$2.39

Over — 60%Under — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Over 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Overavg 63.5¢	$2.0K	$1.5K	-$254.76	51% 2763-2694 (5457)
└ Over leg	Overavg 63.5¢	$1.0K	$1.1K	+$97.08
└ Under leg	Underavg 45.5¢	$534.23	$357.8	-$351.83
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Overavg 54¢	$599.04	$565.86	-$33.19	51% 2112-2051 (4163)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Overavg 55.4¢	$893.59	$77.23	+$186.99	54% 1122-947 (2069)
HO HomeRunHazard<$100	Overavg 46.8¢	$27.42	$29.02	+$1.6	57% 3458-2629 (6087)
rafaleaooCTR<$100	Underavg 52¢	$22.26	$22.48	+$0.21	3% 20-638 (658)
JO JoeyAroyyOO<$100	Overavg 44¢	$14.77	$16.11	+$1.34	48% 116-124 (240)
GH ghorrock<$100	Overavg 46¢	$11.21	$11.7	+$0.49	53% 1117-973 (2090)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Underavg 52¢	$10.4	$10.4	+$0	56% 312-248 (560)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Underavg 46¢	$7.13	$4.57	-$2.56	49% 1386-1434 (2820)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Underavg 53¢	$2.65	$2.6	-$0.05	38% 509-821 (1330)
MU Multicoloured-Serf<$100	Overavg 48¢	$0.92	$0.94	+$0.02	48% 581-618 (1199)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Over

Invested

$2,008.07

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$254.76

Record

51%

2763-2694 (5457)

Both legs:

Over$1,018.4463.5¢+$97.08

Under$534.2345.5¢-$351.83

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Over

Invested

$599.04

Value

$565.86

PnL

-$33.19

Record

51%

2112-2051 (4163)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Over

Invested

$893.59

Value

$77.23

PnL

+$186.99

Record

54%

1122-947 (2069)

HomeRunHazard<$100

Over

Invested

$27.42

Value

$29.02

PnL

+$1.6

Record

57%

3458-2629 (6087)

rafaleaooCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$22.26

Value

$22.48

PnL

+$0.21

Record

20-638 (658)

JoeyAroyyOO<$100

Over

Invested

$14.77

Value

$16.11

PnL

+$1.34

Record

48%

116-124 (240)

ghorrock<$100

Over

Invested

$11.21

Value

$11.7

PnL

+$0.49

Record

53%

1117-973 (2090)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$10.4

Value

$10.4

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

312-248 (560)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$7.13

Value

$4.57

PnL

-$2.56

Record

49%

1386-1434 (2820)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.65

Value

$2.6

PnL

-$0.05

Record

38%

509-821 (1330)

Multicoloured-Serf<$100

Over

Invested

$0.92

Value

$0.94

PnL

+$0.02

Record

48%

581-618 (1199)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 70%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 10 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Over 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance71.5%

69.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$39.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

139.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.