Raptors vs. 76ers
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold 76ers (20%) · 76ers at 79¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 13
⚠️
Avoid
76ers
5
76ers 20%
1 arb excluded
$5.9K
$238.88
Research grade
Avoid76ers at 79%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
17% of non-arb traders are on 76ers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BI bigbeliever | 76ersavg 75¢ | $5.4K | $5.6K | +$254.14 | — 8-3 (11) |
OD OddstormCTR | Raptorsavg 23.3¢ | $128.64 | $116.59 | -$12.05 | 14% 15-94 (109) |
SN SnakeBallARB<$100 | Raptorsavg 31.5¢ | $156.95 | $115.31 | -$41.64 | 47% 147-166 (313) |
| └ Raptors leg | Raptorsavg 31.5¢ | $130.35 | $88.88 | -$41.47 | |
| └ 76ers leg | 76ersavg 79¢ | $26.6 | $26.43 | -$0.17 | |
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100 | Raptorsavg 21¢ | $23.94 | $23.37 | -$0.57 | 51% 3156-3056 (6212) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Raptorsavg 20.5¢ | $13.83 | $14.28 | +$0.45 | 48% 405-439 (844) |
PU purplegattoCTR<$100 | Raptorsavg 35.4¢ | $7.08 | $4 | -$3.08 | 69% 2572-1165 (3737) |
Invested
$5,379.94
Value
$5.6K
PnL
+$254.14
Record
—
8-3 (11)
Invested
$128.64
Value
$116.59
PnL
-$12.05
Record
14%
15-94 (109)
Invested
$156.95
Value
$115.31
PnL
-$41.64
Record
47%
147-166 (313)
Both legs:
Invested
$23.94
Value
$23.37
PnL
-$0.57
Record
51%
3156-3056 (6212)
Invested
$13.83
Value
$14.28
PnL
+$0.45
Record
48%
405-439 (844)
Invested
$7.08
Value
$4
PnL
-$3.08
Record
69%
2572-1165 (3737)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
78.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.