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Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| guilttrip | HomeRunHazard | nigiri99 | Thunderous-Authoritarian-Snarl | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 86% (6–1, n=7) | 54% (361–305, n=666) | 54% (312–261, n=573) | 50% (7–7, n=14) |
| Consensus PnL | $13K | $444K | $425K | $656K |
| Tracked as | PM monthly #751 | PM monthly #6 | PM monthly #135 | was PM monthly #70 |
| Sides with the consensus | 28% (26 of 94 open) | 76% (126 of 165 open) | 50% (55 of 110 open) | no open consensus position |
| Strongest topics | none with 10+ settled |
|
| none with 10+ settled |
| Weakest topic | — | — | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 71% of 7 at avg 53¢, ROI +40% | 100% of 194 at avg 53¢, ROI +47% | 65% of 504 at avg 53¢, ROI +5% | 86% of 7 at avg 44¢, ROI +51% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 29% (won 0% of 2) | 1% (won 100% of 2) | 14% (won 32% of 72) | 14% (won 0% of 1) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 0% | 32% (won 100% of 62) | 24% (won 55% of 121) | 57% (won 100% of 4) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 57% (won 100% of 4) | 59% (won 100% of 115) | 44% (won 69% of 222) | 29% (won 100% of 2) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 14% (won 100% of 1) | 8% (won 100% of 15) | 18% (won 98% of 89) | 0% |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
26 on the same side, 18 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | guilttrip | HomeRunHazard | nigiri99 | Thunderous-Authoritarian-Snarl |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thunder vs. Clippers: O/U 222.5 opposite sides · consensus Over | — | Under $7.4K | Over $151 | — |
| Thunder vs. Clippers opposite sides · consensus Thunder | — | Clippers $3.5K | Thunder $3.2K | — |
| Spread: UCLA (-10.5) opposite sides · consensus Illinois | — | Illinois $126 | UCLA $6.5K | — |
| Spread: Houston (-9.5) opposite sides · consensus Colorado | — | Colorado $1.3K | Houston $5.0K | — |
| Warriors vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 opposite sides · consensus Under | — | Under $4.1K | Over $2.0K | — |
| Dolphins vs. Colts: O/U 38.5 opposite sides · consensus Under | — | Over $4.4K | Under $1.1K | — |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting? opposite sides · consensus No | Yes $2 | — | No $4.7K | — |
| Spread: Knicks (-7.5) opposite sides · consensus Pacers | — | Knicks $4.1K | Pacers $21 | — |
| Trail Blazers vs. Kings opposite sides · consensus Trail Blazers | — | Trail Blazers $2.2K | Kings $1.7K | — |
| Predators vs. Golden Knights opposite sides · consensus Golden Knights | — | Predators $3.3K | Golden Knights $77 | — |
| Spread: James Madison (-6.5) opposite sides · consensus UConn | — | UConn $2.1K | James Madison $1.2K | — |
| Spread: Grizzlies (-3.5) opposite sides · consensus Pelicans | — | Pelicans $2.1K | Grizzlies $966 | — |
| Rangers vs. Canucks opposite sides · consensus Rangers | — | Rangers $2.3K | Canucks $508 | — |
| Spread: Alabama (-17.5) opposite sides · consensus Vanderbilt | — | Alabama $1.8K | Vanderbilt $130 | — |
| Spread: Grizzlies (-4.5) opposite sides · consensus Pelicans | — | Pelicans $1.2K | Grizzlies $626 | — |
| California-San Diego Tritons vs. Utah State Aggies opposite sides · consensus Utah State Aggies | — | Utah State Aggies $739 | California-San Diego Tritons $60 | — |
| Grizzlies vs. Pelicans: O/U 239.5 opposite sides · consensus Under | — | Over $118 | Under $568 | — |
| Spread: Auburn (-2.5) opposite sides · consensus Mississippi State | — | Mississippi State $399 | Auburn $134 | — |
| Grizzlies vs. Pelicans: O/U 235.5 same side · consensus Over | — | Under $13K | Under $5.0K | — |
| Bucks vs. Magic: O/U 223.5 same side · consensus Over | — | Over $13K | Over $1.0K | — |
| Patriots vs. Lions: O/U 50.5 same side · consensus Under | — | Over $12K | Over $1.4K | — |
| Spread: Hawks (-6.5) same side · consensus Hawks | — | Hawks $4.4K | Hawks $3.0K | — |
| Hawks vs. Bulls same side · consensus Hawks | — | Hawks $3.4K | Hawks $3.0K | — |
| Spread: Knicks (-6.5) same side · consensus Knicks | — | Knicks $5.1K | Knicks $486 | — |
| Bucks vs. Magic: O/U 222.5 same side · consensus Over | — | Over $4.0K | Over $1.3K | — |
| Spread: Spurs (-11.5) same side · consensus Spurs | — | Spurs $84 | Spurs $4.0K | — |
| Spread: Heat (-2.5) same side · consensus Cavaliers | — | Cavaliers $1.2K | Cavaliers $2.6K | — |
| Spread: Thunder (-6.5) same side · consensus Thunder | — | Thunder $1.4K | Thunder $2.1K | — |
| Spread: Trail Blazers (-10.5) same side · consensus Kings | — | Kings $656 | Kings $2.5K | — |
| Warriors vs. Spurs same side · consensus Spurs | — | Warriors $812 | Warriors $2.2K | — |
| Bucks vs. Magic same side · consensus Magic | — | Bucks $2.8K | Bucks $54 | — |
| Cavaliers vs. Heat same side · consensus Cavaliers | — | Cavaliers $855 | Cavaliers $1.4K | — |
| Jazz vs. Rockets same side · consensus Rockets | — | Jazz $1.2K | Jazz $116 | — |
| Alabama vs. Vanderbilt same side · consensus Alabama | — | Alabama $42 | Alabama $1.2K | — |
| Knicks vs. Pacers: O/U 219.5 same side · consensus Under | — | Over $400 | Over $585 | — |
| South Carolina vs. Arkansas same side · consensus South Carolina | — | South Carolina $267 | South Carolina $550 | — |
| Spread: Trail Blazers (-9.5) same side · consensus Kings | — | Trail Blazers $3 | Trail Blazers $694 | — |
| Hawks vs. Bulls: O/U 244.5 same side · consensus Over | — | Over $433 | Over $31 | — |
| Spread: Hawks (-4.5) same side · consensus Hawks | — | Hawks $380 | Hawks $54 | — |
| Trail Blazers vs. Kings: O/U 228.5 same side · consensus Over | — | Over $6 | Over $308 | — |
| Spread: Spurs (-12.5) same side · consensus Warriors | — | Warriors $141 | Warriors $164 | — |
| Spread: Rockets (-16.5) same side · consensus Jazz | — | Jazz $180 | Jazz $29 | — |
| Houston vs. Colorado same side · consensus Colorado | — | Colorado $97 | Colorado $77 | — |
| Spread: Houston (-8.5) same side · consensus Colorado | — | Houston $5 | Houston $19 | — |