Grizzlies vs. Pelicans: O/U 235.5

5 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Over (38%) · Over at 54¢ · $15K held · ends Nov 14

Over54¢Under46¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 38%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$15.4K

Combined PnL

-$91.27

Smart Money Entry

53.3¢ → 53.5¢

+0% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 54%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 13 top traders (38%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over54%

Under47%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over5 traders

Total Value$4.7K

Total Shares8,788

Combined PnL+$25.09

Under8 traders

Total Value$3.7K

Total Shares8,054

Combined PnL-$116.36

Over — 38%Under — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 63% · 8

Diverging

Top 1000Under 67% · 12

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Overavg 51.1¢	$6.1K	$6.3K	+$203.45	57% 3561-2704 (6265)
└ Over leg	Overavg 51.1¢	$3.8K	$4.0K	+$178.6
└ Under leg	Underavg 46¢	$2.3K	$2.3K	+$24.85
MO monkeymashingkeyboard	Overavg 54¢	$3.8K	$3.8K	-$35.34	53% 535-466 (1001)
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR	Underavg 50¢	$1.3K	$1.2K	-$100.53	49% 611-642 (1253)
nehcnehcCTR	Underavg 46¢	$991.7	$1.0K	+$10.78	34% 43-83 (126)
PL pltrkr111CTR	Underavg 48¢	$1,000	$968.75	-$31.25	4% 22-532 (554)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Underavg 46¢	$561.67	$567.77	+$6.11	36% 326-587 (913)
VE Venusian	Overavg 50¢	$457.43	$494.02	+$36.59	34% 735-1404 (2139)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Overavg 51¢	$346.34	$366.71	+$20.37	51% 2261-2214 (4475)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Overavg 54¢	$350	$350	+$0	59% 3648-2489 (6137)
└ Over leg	Overavg 54¢	$189	$187.25	-$1.75
└ Under leg	Underavg 46¢	$161	$162.75	+$1.75
GC GC-PARB<$100	Overavg 54¢	$350	$350	+$0	33% 251-499 (750)
└ Over leg	Overavg 54¢	$189	$187.25	-$1.75
└ Under leg	Underavg 46¢	$161	$162.75	+$1.75
FO Forecastication2<$100	Overavg 50¢	$45.5	$49.14	+$3.64	45% 214-259 (473)
nigiri99<$100	Overavg 54¢	$18.9	$18.73	-$0.18	52% 471-427 (898)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Underavg 47.7¢	$19.1	$18.6	-$0.5	53% 388-339 (727)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Underavg 48¢	$13.48	$13.16	-$0.32	49% 1306-1355 (2661)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Underavg 50¢	$5	$4.6	-$0.4	40% 584-893 (1477)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 51¢	$2.55	$2.3	-$0.25	53% 1326-1186 (2512)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Over

Invested

$6,101.02

Value

$6.3K

PnL

+$203.45

Record

57%

3561-2704 (6265)

Both legs:

Over$3,845.1251.1¢+$178.6

Under$2,255.946¢+$24.85

monkeymashingkeyboard

Over

Invested

$3,816.65

Value

$3.8K

PnL

-$35.34

Record

53%

535-466 (1001)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR

Under

Invested

$1,256.59

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$100.53

Record

49%

611-642 (1253)

nehcnehcCTR

Under

Invested

$991.7

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$10.78

Record

34%

43-83 (126)

pltrkr111CTR

Under

Invested

$1,000

Value

$968.75

PnL

-$31.25

Record

22-532 (554)

LuckyLooCTR

Under

Invested

$561.67

Value

$567.77

PnL

+$6.11

Record

36%

326-587 (913)

Venusian

Over

Invested

$457.43

Value

$494.02

PnL

+$36.59

Record

34%

735-1404 (2139)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Over

Invested

$346.34

Value

$366.71

PnL

+$20.37

Record

51%

2261-2214 (4475)

NM-PARB<$100

Over

Invested

$350

Value

$350

PnL

+$0

Record

59%

3648-2489 (6137)

Both legs:

Invested

$350

Value

$350

PnL

+$0

Record

33%

251-499 (750)

Both legs:

Over$18954¢-$1.75

Under$16146¢+$1.75

Forecastication2<$100

Over

Invested

$45.5

Value

$49.14

PnL

+$3.64

Record

45%

214-259 (473)

nigiri99<$100

Over

Invested

$18.9

Value

$18.73

PnL

-$0.18

Record

52%

471-427 (898)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$19.1

Value

$18.6

PnL

-$0.5

Record

53%

388-339 (727)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$13.48

Value

$13.16

PnL

-$0.32

Record

49%

1306-1355 (2661)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Under

Invested

Value

$4.6

PnL

-$0.4

Record

40%

584-893 (1477)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.55

Value

$2.3

PnL

-$0.25

Record

53%

1326-1186 (2512)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 54%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 13 top traders (38%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 63% · 8

Diverging

Top 1000Under 67% · 12

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.7%

53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$79.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

179.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.