Spread: Spurs (-12.5)

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Warriors (60%) · Warriors at 54¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 14

Spurs47¢Warriors53¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Warriors

Consensus Traders

Warriors 60%

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

$28.74

Smart Money Entry

48.8¢ → 53.5¢

+10% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidWarriors at 54%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Warriors

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Spurs47%

Warriors54%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Warriors6 traders

Total Value$803.43

Total Shares1,535

Combined PnL+$37.09

Spurs4 traders

Total Value$438.34

Total Shares913

Combined PnL-$8.35

Warriors — 60%Spurs — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Warriors. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleWarriors 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrWarriors 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedWarriors 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Warriors 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AY ay118	Warriorsavg 49¢	$413.28	$438.58	+$25.3	24% 28-91 (119)
GC GC-PCTR	Spursavg 47¢	$164.5	$168	+$3.5	33% 251-499 (750)
nigiri99	Warriorsavg 48.1¢	$152	$164.32	+$12.32	52% 471-427 (898)
HO HomeRunHazard	Warriorsavg 48¢	$130.56	$141.44	+$10.88	57% 3561-2704 (6265)
QW QWUERHAIUKSJNFSNCFCTR	Spursavg 53¢	$151.97	$137.63	-$14.34	38% 17-28 (45)
NM NM-PCTR	Spursavg 47¢	$127.37	$130.08	+$2.71	59% 3648-2489 (6137)
38 38791873984189	Warriorsavg 52¢	$329.2	$37.03	-$9.1	48% 2786-3040 (5826)
VeryLucky888<$100	Warriorsavg 50¢	$62.59	$16.64	-$1.12	53% 1030-921 (1951)
PA Pan9X<$100	Warriorsavg 48¢	$39.54	$5.42	-$1.19	49% 1306-1355 (2661)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Spursavg 52¢	$2.85	$2.63	-$0.22	46% 2084-2445 (4529)

ay118

Warriors

Invested

$413.28

Value

$438.58

PnL

+$25.3

Record

24%

28-91 (119)

GC-PCTR

Spurs

Invested

$164.5

Value

$168

PnL

+$3.5

Record

33%

251-499 (750)

nigiri99

Warriors

Invested

$152

Value

$164.32

PnL

+$12.32

Record

52%

471-427 (898)

HomeRunHazard

Warriors

Invested

$130.56

Value

$141.44

PnL

+$10.88

Record

57%

3561-2704 (6265)

QWUERHAIUKSJNFSNCFCTR

Spurs

Invested

$151.97

Value

$137.63

PnL

-$14.34

Record

38%

17-28 (45)

NM-PCTR

Spurs

Invested

$127.37

Value

$130.08

PnL

+$2.71

Record

59%

3648-2489 (6137)

38791873984189

Warriors

Invested

$329.2

Value

$37.03

PnL

-$9.1

Record

48%

2786-3040 (5826)

VeryLucky888<$100

Warriors

Invested

$62.59

Value

$16.64

PnL

-$1.12

Record

53%

1030-921 (1951)

Pan9X<$100

Warriors

Invested

$39.54

Value

$5.42

PnL

-$1.19

Record

49%

1306-1355 (2661)

suntoriCTR<$100

Spurs

Invested

$2.85

Value

$2.63

PnL

-$0.22

Record

46%

2084-2445 (4529)

Research grade

AvoidWarriors at 54%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Warriors

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Warriors. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleWarriors 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrWarriors 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedWarriors 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Warriors 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Warriors wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.7%

53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$79.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

179.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.