Grizzlies vs. Pelicans: O/U 239.5
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (57%) · Under at 60¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 14
⚠️
Avoid
Under
7
Under 57%
$1.1K
$63.91
55.4¢ → 60¢
+8% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 60%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 nigiri99 | Underavg 55.5¢ | $444 | $568 | +$124 | 53% 472-427 (899) |
SU SunlineTicker | Underavg 58¢ | $215.18 | $222.6 | +$7.42 | 70% 1711-741 (2452) |
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singles | Underavg 50¢ | $200 | $200 | -$0 | 75% 112-37 (149) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Overavg 44¢ | $177.17 | $117.54 | -$59.63 | 57% 3561-2704 (6265) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Overavg 42¢ | $16.58 | $11.45 | -$5.13 | 35% 750-1386 (2136) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Overavg 42¢ | $10.5 | $7.25 | -$3.25 | 49% 1307-1356 (2663) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Underavg 54¢ | $1.61 | $2.11 | +$0.51 | 53% 1374-1218 (2592) |
nigiri99Invested
$444
Value
$568
PnL
+$124
Record
53%
472-427 (899)
Invested
$215.18
Value
$222.6
PnL
+$7.42
Record
70%
1711-741 (2452)
Invested
$200
Value
$200
PnL
-$0
Record
75%
112-37 (149)
Invested
$177.17
Value
$117.54
PnL
-$59.63
Record
57%
3561-2704 (6265)
Invested
$16.58
Value
$11.45
PnL
-$5.13
Record
35%
750-1386 (2136)
Invested
$10.5
Value
$7.25
PnL
-$3.25
Record
49%
1307-1356 (2663)
Invested
$1.61
Value
$2.11
PnL
+$0.51
Record
53%
1374-1218 (2592)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
60.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.