Spread: Houston (-8.5)
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Colorado (60%) · Colorado at 53¢ · $56 held · ends Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
Colorado
5
Colorado 60%
$55.99
-$0.1
Research grade
NeutralColorado at 53%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 nigiri99CTR<$100 | Houstonavg 48¢ | $38.88 | $38.48 | -$0.41 | 53% 472-427 (899) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Coloradoavg 48¢ | $4.83 | $5.13 | +$0.3 | 53% 1374-1218 (2592) |
TH thatsabing0<$100 | Coloradoavg 49¢ | $4.82 | $5.02 | +$0.2 | 64% 177-101 (278) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100 | Houstonavg 51¢ | $5.01 | $4.82 | -$0.2 | 57% 3561-2704 (6265) |
OM omnibus-076daa<$100 | Coloradoavg 51¢ | $2.55 | $2.55 | +$0 | 44% 392-498 (890) |
nigiri99CTR<$100Invested
$38.88
Value
$38.48
PnL
-$0.41
Record
53%
472-427 (899)
Invested
$4.83
Value
$5.13
PnL
+$0.3
Record
53%
1374-1218 (2592)
Invested
$4.82
Value
$5.02
PnL
+$0.2
Record
64%
177-101 (278)
Invested
$5.01
Value
$4.82
PnL
-$0.2
Record
57%
3561-2704 (6265)
Invested
$2.55
Value
$2.55
PnL
+$0
Record
44%
392-498 (890)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.