Spread: Houston (-9.5)

5 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Colorado (38%) · Colorado at 54¢ · $17K held · ends Nov 14

Houston47¢Colorado53¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Colorado

Consensus Traders

Colorado 38%

Total Value

$16.6K

Combined PnL

$2.56

Smart Money Entry

50.7¢ → 53.5¢

+5% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralColorado at 54%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Colorado

5 of 13 top traders (38%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Houston47%

Colorado54%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Houston8 traders

Total Value$7.4K

Total Shares15,534

Combined PnL-$298.65

Colorado5 traders

Total Value$9.2K

Total Shares17,549

Combined PnL+$301.21

Houston — 62%Colorado — 38%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-35 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

45% of non-arb traders are on Colorado. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleHouston 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrHouston 57% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedHouston 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Houston 50% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
nigiri99CTR	Houstonavg 50¢	$5.4K	$5.0K	-$322.08	53% 472-427 (899)
MU Multicoloured-Serf	Coloradoavg 50¢	$3.5K	$3.7K	+$141.92	49% 611-642 (1253)
BA bands1	Coloradoavg 50¢	$2.5K	$2.6K	+$101.02	51% 346-335 (681)
0X 0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186	Coloradoavg 52¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	+$46.16	49% 516-536 (1052)
HO HomeRunHazard	Coloradoavg 53¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$11.51	57% 3561-2704 (6265)
38 38791873984189CTR	Houstonavg 47¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$23.02	48% 2787-3042 (5829)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Houstonavg 48¢	$663.67	$663.67	+$0	48% 677-745 (1422)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR	Houstonavg 48¢	$189.6	$189.6	+$0	47% 191-212 (403)
GC GC-PCTR	Houstonavg 48¢	$168	$168	+$0	33% 251-499 (750)
NM NM-PCTR	Houstonavg 48¢	$168	$168	-$0	59% 3648-2489 (6137)
GH ghorrock<$100	Coloradoavg 49.4¢	$11.63	$12.23	+$0.6	53% 1374-1218 (2592)
FO forecastication4CTR<$100	Houstonavg 46¢	$8.14	$8.49	+$0.35	31% 134-299 (433)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Houstonavg 47¢	$2.35	$2.4	+$0.05	53% 1030-921 (1951)

nigiri99CTR

Houston

Invested

$5,368

Value

$5.0K

PnL

-$322.08

Record

53%

472-427 (899)

Multicoloured-Serf

Colorado

Invested

$3,548

Value

$3.7K

PnL

+$141.92

Record

49%

611-642 (1253)

bands1

Colorado

Invested

$2,525.41

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$101.02

Record

51%

346-335 (681)

0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186

Colorado

Invested

$1,600.37

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$46.16

Record

49%

516-536 (1052)

HomeRunHazard

Colorado

Invested

$1,219.53

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$11.51

Record

57%

3561-2704 (6265)

38791873984189CTR

Houston

Invested

$1,082.03

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$23.02

Record

48%

2787-3042 (5829)

SnakeBallCTR

Houston

Invested

$663.67

Value

$663.67

PnL

+$0

Record

48%

677-745 (1422)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR

Houston

Invested

$189.6

Value

$189.6

PnL

+$0

Record

47%

191-212 (403)

GC-PCTR

Houston

Invested

$168

Value

$168

PnL

+$0

Record

33%

251-499 (750)

NM-PCTR

Houston

Invested

$168

Value

$168

PnL

-$0

Record

59%

3648-2489 (6137)

ghorrock<$100

Colorado

Invested

$11.63

Value

$12.23

PnL

+$0.6

Record

53%

1374-1218 (2592)

forecastication4CTR<$100

Houston

Invested

$8.14

Value

$8.49

PnL

+$0.35

Record

31%

134-299 (433)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Houston

Invested

$2.35

Value

$2.4

PnL

+$0.05

Record

53%

1030-921 (1951)

Research grade

NeutralColorado at 54%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Colorado

5 of 13 top traders (38%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-35 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

45% of non-arb traders are on Colorado. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleHouston 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrHouston 57% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedHouston 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Houston 50% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Colorado wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.7%

53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$79.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

179.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.