Spread: Grizzlies (-4.5)

6 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Pelicans (46%) · Pelicans at 59¢ · $9K held · ends Nov 14

Grizzlies42¢Pelicans58¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Pelicans

Consensus Traders

Pelicans 46%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.4K

Combined PnL

$35.81

Smart Money Entry

55.9¢ → 58.5¢

+5% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidPelicans at 59%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Pelicans

6 of 13 top traders (46%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Grizzlies42%

Pelicans59%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Pelicans6 traders

Total Value$6.6K

Total Shares11,332

Combined PnL+$236.48

Grizzlies7 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares5,148

Combined PnL-$200.68

Pelicans — 46%Grizzlies — 54%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 59%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

46% of non-arb traders are on Pelicans. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Pelicans) and the top 1000 (12 on Grizzlies) disagree here.

whalePelicans 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrGrizzlies 67% · 9

Diverging

Hand-pickedPelicans 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Grizzlies 58% · 12

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816	Pelicansavg 57.6¢	$2.4K	$2.4K	+$17.29	9% 21-214 (235)
TO tomb2456	Pelicansavg 56¢	$1.4K	$1.5K	+$50.46	53% 31-28 (59)
MU Multicoloured-Serf	Pelicansavg 55¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$63.03	49% 611-642 (1253)
HO HomeRunHazard	Pelicansavg 53¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$99.83	57% 3561-2704 (6265)
AY ay118CTR	Grizzliesavg 44¢	$1.0K	$940.95	-$68.85	24% 28-91 (119)
DO DolphinBallerCTR	Grizzliesavg 47¢	$939.99	$819.99	-$120	13% 17-116 (133)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Pelicansavg 58¢	$350	$350	+$0	59% 3648-2489 (6137)
└ Pelicans leg	Pelicansavg 58¢	$203	$204.75	+$1.75
└ Grizzlies leg	Grizzliesavg 42¢	$147	$145.25	-$1.75
GC GC-PARB<$100	Pelicansavg 58¢	$350	$350	+$0	33% 251-499 (750)
└ Pelicans leg	Pelicansavg 58¢	$203	$204.75	+$1.75
└ Grizzlies leg	Grizzliesavg 42¢	$147	$145.25	-$1.75
VeryLucky888	Pelicansavg 58¢	$258.05	$260.27	+$2.22	53% 1030-921 (1951)
fyrskenCTR	Grizzliesavg 43¢	$160.82	$153.34	-$7.48	52% 46-43 (89)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Grizzliesavg 42¢	$153.72	$150.06	-$3.66	50% 3193-3131 (6324)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Pelicansavg 53¢	$38.69	$42.34	+$3.65	49% 1668-1706 (3374)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Grizzliesavg 41¢	$33.87	$34.28	+$0.41	43% 808-1065 (1873)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Grizzliesavg 45¢	$9	$8.2	-$0.8	53% 388-339 (727)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Grizzliesavg 44¢	$4.4	$4.1	-$0.3	40% 584-893 (1477)

0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816

Pelicans

Invested

$2,415.23

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$17.29

Record

21-214 (235)

tomb2456

Pelicans

Invested

$1,412.88

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$50.46

Record

53%

31-28 (59)

Multicoloured-Serf

Pelicans

Invested

$1,155.55

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$63.03

Record

49%

611-642 (1253)

HomeRunHazard

Pelicans

Invested

$1,058.17

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$99.83

Record

57%

3561-2704 (6265)

ay118CTR

Grizzlies

Invested

$1,009.8

Value

$940.95

PnL

-$68.85

Record

24%

28-91 (119)

DolphinBallerCTR

Grizzlies

Invested

$939.99

Value

$819.99

PnL

-$120

Record

13%

17-116 (133)

NM-PARB<$100

Pelicans

Invested

$350

Value

$350

PnL

+$0

Record

59%

3648-2489 (6137)

Both legs:

Pelicans$20358¢+$1.75

Grizzlies$14742¢-$1.75

GC-PARB<$100

Pelicans

Invested

$350

Value

$350

PnL

+$0

Record

33%

251-499 (750)

Both legs:

Pelicans$20358¢+$1.75

Grizzlies$14742¢-$1.75

VeryLucky888

Pelicans

Invested

$258.05

Value

$260.27

PnL

+$2.22

Record

53%

1030-921 (1951)

fyrskenCTR

Grizzlies

Invested

$160.82

Value

$153.34

PnL

-$7.48

Record

52%

46-43 (89)

FlaznorpCTR

Grizzlies

Invested

$153.72

Value

$150.06

PnL

-$3.66

Record

50%

3193-3131 (6324)

ferdinand2<$100

Pelicans

Invested

$38.69

Value

$42.34

PnL

+$3.65

Record

49%

1668-1706 (3374)

sentrioCTR<$100

Grizzlies

Invested

$33.87

Value

$34.28

PnL

+$0.41

Record

43%

808-1065 (1873)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Grizzlies

Invested

Value

$8.2

PnL

-$0.8

Record

53%

388-339 (727)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Grizzlies

Invested

$4.4

Value

$4.1

PnL

-$0.3

Record

40%

584-893 (1477)

Research grade

AvoidPelicans at 59%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Pelicans

6 of 13 top traders (46%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 59%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

46% of non-arb traders are on Pelicans. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Pelicans) and the top 1000 (12 on Grizzlies) disagree here.

whalePelicans 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrGrizzlies 67% · 9

Diverging

Hand-pickedPelicans 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Grizzlies 58% · 12

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Pelicans wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance60.7%

58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$64.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

164.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.