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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| HomeRunHazard | nigiri99 | paperclip-maxxer | robloxgamblemaster-2008-10-18 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 54% (361–305, n=666) | 54% (312–261, n=573) | 100% (3–0, n=3) | 57% (37–28, n=65) |
| Consensus PnL | $444K | $425K | $90K | $440K |
| Tracked as | PM monthly #6 | PM monthly #135 | PM monthly #363 | PM monthly #33 + pinned |
| Sides with the consensus | 77% (126 of 163 open) | 55% (56 of 101 open) | 43% (3 of 7 open) | 57% (4 of 7 open) |
| Strongest topics |
|
| none with 10+ settled |
|
| Weakest topic | — | — | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 100% of 194 at avg 53¢, ROI +47% | 65% of 504 at avg 53¢, ROI +5% | 100% of 4 at avg 70¢, ROI +39% | 100% of 37 at avg 58¢, ROI +36% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 1% (won 100% of 2) | 14% (won 32% of 72) | 0% | 3% (won 100% of 1) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 32% (won 100% of 62) | 24% (won 55% of 121) | 25% (won 100% of 1) | 32% (won 100% of 12) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 59% (won 100% of 115) | 44% (won 69% of 222) | 25% (won 100% of 1) | 43% (won 100% of 16) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 8% (won 100% of 15) | 18% (won 98% of 89) | 50% (won 100% of 2) | 22% (won 100% of 8) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
28 on the same side, 13 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | HomeRunHazard | nigiri99 | paperclip-maxxer | robloxgamblemaster-2008-10-18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Gen.G (BO5) - Worlds Playoffs opposite sides · consensus Gen.G | — | Bilibili Gaming $1.1K | — | Gen.G $91K |
| Thunder vs. Clippers: O/U 222.5 opposite sides · consensus Over | Under $7.4K | Over $151 | — | — |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting? opposite sides · consensus No | — | No $4.7K | Yes $2.6K | — |
| Thunder vs. Clippers opposite sides · consensus Thunder | Clippers $3.5K | Thunder $3.2K | — | — |
| Spread: UCLA (-10.5) opposite sides · consensus Illinois | Illinois $126 | UCLA $6.5K | — | — |
| Spread: Houston (-9.5) opposite sides · consensus Colorado | Colorado $1.2K | Houston $5.0K | — | — |
| Dolphins vs. Colts: O/U 38.5 opposite sides · consensus Under | Over $4.4K | Under $1.1K | — | — |
| Spread: Knicks (-7.5) opposite sides · consensus Pacers | Knicks $4.1K | Pacers $21 | — | — |
| Trail Blazers vs. Kings opposite sides · consensus Trail Blazers | Trail Blazers $2.2K | Kings $1.7K | — | — |
| Predators vs. Golden Knights opposite sides · consensus Golden Knights | Predators $3.3K | Golden Knights $77 | — | — |
| Spread: James Madison (-6.5) opposite sides · consensus UConn | UConn $2.1K | James Madison $1.2K | — | — |
| Rangers vs. Canucks opposite sides · consensus Rangers | Rangers $2.3K | Canucks $508 | — | — |
| California-San Diego Tritons vs. Utah State Aggies opposite sides · consensus Utah State Aggies | Utah State Aggies $739 | California-San Diego Tritons $62 | — | — |
| Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns vs. UNCW Seahawks same side · consensus Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns | — | Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns $337K | — | Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns $211K |
| Bucks vs. Magic: O/U 223.5 same side · consensus Over | Over $13K | Over $1.0K | — | — |
| Patriots vs. Lions: O/U 50.5 same side · consensus Under | Over $12K | Over $1.3K | — | — |
| Spread: Hawks (-6.5) same side · consensus Hawks | Hawks $4.4K | Hawks $2.5K | — | — |
| Hawks vs. Bulls same side · consensus Hawks | Hawks $3.4K | Hawks $3.0K | — | — |
| Spread: Knicks (-6.5) same side · consensus Knicks | Knicks $5.1K | Knicks $486 | — | — |
| Bucks vs. Magic: O/U 222.5 same side · consensus Over | Over $4.0K | Over $1.3K | — | — |
| Spread: Heat (-2.5) same side · consensus Cavaliers | Cavaliers $1.2K | Cavaliers $2.6K | — | — |
| Spread: Thunder (-6.5) same side · consensus Thunder | Thunder $1.4K | Thunder $2.1K | — | — |
| Warriors vs. Spurs same side · consensus Spurs | Warriors $812 | Warriors $2.2K | — | — |
| Spread: Trail Blazers (-10.5) same side · consensus Kings | Kings $656 | Kings $2.3K | — | — |
| Bucks vs. Magic same side · consensus Magic | Bucks $2.8K | Bucks $54 | — | — |
| Spread: Grizzlies (-2.5) same side · consensus Pelicans | Grizzlies $2.4K | Grizzlies $196 | — | — |
| Spread: Grizzlies (-3.5) same side · consensus Pelicans | Pelicans $2.1K | Pelicans $220 | — | — |
| Cavaliers vs. Heat same side · consensus Cavaliers | Cavaliers $855 | Cavaliers $1.4K | — | — |
| Jazz vs. Rockets same side · consensus Rockets | Jazz $1.2K | Jazz $116 | — | — |
| Alabama vs. Vanderbilt same side · consensus Alabama | Alabama $42 | Alabama $1.2K | — | — |
| Knicks vs. Pacers: O/U 219.5 same side · consensus Under | Over $408 | Over $597 | — | — |
| South Carolina vs. Arkansas same side · consensus South Carolina | South Carolina $267 | South Carolina $550 | — | — |
| Spread: Trail Blazers (-9.5) same side · consensus Kings | Trail Blazers $3 | Trail Blazers $649 | — | — |
| Will there be no new be CEO of NVIDIA by December 31, 2028? same side · consensus No | — | — | Yes $461 | Yes $10 |
| Hawks vs. Bulls: O/U 244.5 same side · consensus Over | Over $433 | Over $31 | — | — |
| Spread: Hawks (-4.5) same side · consensus Hawks | Hawks $380 | Hawks $54 | — | — |
| Trail Blazers vs. Kings: O/U 228.5 same side · consensus Over | Over $6 | Over $308 | — | — |
| Spread: Spurs (-12.5) same side · consensus Warriors | Warriors $141 | Warriors $164 | — | — |
| Spread: Rockets (-16.5) same side · consensus Jazz | Jazz $180 | Jazz $29 | — | — |
| Spread: Spurs (-11.5) same side · consensus Spurs | Spurs $84 | Spurs $99 | — | — |
| Houston vs. Colorado same side · consensus Colorado | Colorado $97 | Colorado $77 | — | — |