Known as paperclip-maxxer since Nov 13 2026 · Previously known as: ethBELIVER (Nov 12 – Nov 13 2026)
Consensus PnL $90K · win rate 100% (3–0, n=3) · PM monthly #369 · holds 6 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$90.3K
Record
3W / 0L
Win Rate
100.0%
of 3 settled
Batting Avg
—
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#83
Source
PM monthly #369
Record (90 d)
3/3 · 100%
Trades
306
Markets
11
Volume
$862.5K
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Top consensus positions
6 in listed consensus markets · 3 of 6 on the consensus side (50%)- Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes $214K · now 13¢ · in at 50¢with the consensus (95% of 39)
- Will Chuck Schumer be the next Senate Majority Leader?Yes $6.5K · now 86¢ · in at 84¢with the consensus (55% of 51)
- Will Chris Van Hollen be the next Senate Majority Leader?No $5.4K · now 86¢ · in at 87¢with the consensus (69% of 41)
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?Yes $1.8K · now 5¢ · in at 3¢against the consensus (No)
- Will there be no new be CEO of NVIDIA by December 31, 2028?Yes $642 · now 10¢ · in at 5¢against the consensus (No)
- Pete Hegseth impeached by March 31, 2027?No $10 · now 50¢ · in at 37¢against the consensus (Yes)
Specialties
4 settled consensus markets · held side won 100% at an average entry of 70¢No topic with 10 or more settled markets where paperclip-maxxer's side won clearly (2 points or more) more often than its price implied.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 0%
- 30–50¢: 25%(won 100% of 1)
- 50–70¢: 25%(won 100% of 1)
- 70¢ and up: 50%(won 100% of 2)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.