LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Gen.G (BO5) - Worlds Playoffs

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Gen.G (67%) · Gen.G at 63¢ · $9K held · ends Nov 15

Bilibili Gaming38¢Gen.G62¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Gen.G

Consensus Traders

Gen.G 67%

Total Value

$9.4K

Combined PnL

-$16.59

Smart Money Entry

62.4¢ → 62.5¢

+0% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralGen.G at 63%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Gen.G

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Bilibili Gaming38%

Gen.G63%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Gen.G6 traders

Total Value$7.1K

Total Shares11,403

Combined PnL+$12.99

Bilibili Gaming3 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares5,948

Combined PnL-$29.58

Gen.G — 67%Bilibili Gaming — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Gen.G. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000Gen.G 67% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
8DDD	Gen.Gavg 62¢	$3.1K	$3.1K	+$25	—
0X 0x6918EA182D963b1Fb7888860b8a8b8bCfbA5782b-1771878010027	Gen.Gavg 63¢	$2.7K	$2.7K	-$21.66	—
GR gregbeastCTR	Bilibili Gamingavg 38¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$15	—
0X 0x7986576408b65a9805AC85553Be33Ad0B044BAa5-1781719173927	Gen.Gavg 62¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$9	—
nigiri99CTR	Bilibili Gamingavg 38¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$14.66	—
KateBollinger<$100	Gen.Gavg 62¢	$70.55	$71.12	+$0.57	—
38 38791873984189<$100	Gen.Gavg 62¢	$53.32	$53.75	+$0.43	—
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Gen.Gavg 63¢	$43.73	$43.38	-$0.35	—
RA randomrandomrandomCTR<$100	Bilibili Gamingavg 37¢	$5.87	$5.95	+$0.08	—

8DDD

Gen.G

Invested

$3,100

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$25

Record

—

0x6918EA182D963b1Fb7888860b8a8b8bCfbA5782b-1771878010027

Gen.G

Invested

$2,729.79

Value

$2.7K

PnL

-$21.66

Record

—

gregbeastCTR

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$1,140

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$15

Record

—

0x7986576408b65a9805AC85553Be33Ad0B044BAa5-1781719173927

Gen.G

Invested

$1,116.22

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$9

Record

—

nigiri99CTR

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$1,114.16

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$14.66

Record

—

KateBollinger<$100

Gen.G

Invested

$70.55

Value

$71.12

PnL

+$0.57

Record

—

38791873984189<$100

Gen.G

Invested

$53.32

Value

$53.75

PnL

+$0.43

Record

—

omnibus-076daa<$100

Gen.G

Invested

$43.73

Value

$43.38

PnL

-$0.35

Record

—

randomrandomrandomCTR<$100

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$5.87

Value

$5.95

PnL

+$0.08

Record

—

Research grade

NeutralGen.G at 63%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Gen.G

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Gen.G. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000Gen.G 67% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Gen.G wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance64.7%

62.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$54.66

Max Loss

-$100.00

154.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.