Will there be no new be CEO of NVIDIA by December 31, 2028?

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 85¢ · $260 held · ends Jan 1, 2029

Yes15¢No85¢Ends Mon, Jan 1, 2029View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 71%

Total Value

$259.69

Combined PnL

$0.58

Smart Money Entry

84¢ → 85¢

+1% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 85%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes15%

No85%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$247.61

Total Shares293

Combined PnL+$1.18

Yes2 traders

Total Value$12.08

Total Shares78

Combined PnL-$0.6

No — 71%Yes — 29%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000No 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BI Bigggggggg	Noavg 82.4¢	$191.33	$195.91	+$4.59	53% 1614-1416 (3030)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 90.6¢	$45.3	$42.21	-$3.09	32% 2873-6242 (9115)
HoshinoAICTR<$100	Yesavg 13.2¢	$46	$8.97	-$0.71	42% 13-18 (31)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 87¢	$4.43	$4.3	-$0.13	48% 462-508 (970)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 87¢	$4.38	$4.25	-$0.13	50% 445-444 (889)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Yesavg 15.5¢	$6.2	$3.12	+$0.12	66% 4143-2169 (6312)
AH aHjCz<$100	Noavg 90¢	$0.99	$0.93	-$0.06	26% 1244-3525 (4769)

Bigggggggg

Invested

$191.33

Value

$195.91

PnL

+$4.59

Record

53%

1614-1416 (3030)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$45.3

Value

$42.21

PnL

-$3.09

Record

32%

2873-6242 (9115)

HoshinoAICTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$46

Value

$8.97

PnL

-$0.71

Record

42%

13-18 (31)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$4.43

Value

$4.3

PnL

-$0.13

Record

48%

462-508 (970)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$4.38

Value

$4.25

PnL

-$0.13

Record

50%

445-444 (889)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.2

Value

$3.12

PnL

+$0.12

Record

66%

4143-2169 (6312)

aHjCz<$100

Invested

$0.99

Value

$0.93

PnL

-$0.06

Record

26%

1244-3525 (4769)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 85%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000No 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance86.5%

85.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$15.63

Max Loss

-$100.00

115.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.