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PolyConsensus
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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
HomeRunHazardkeeptheblueflagflyinghighrobloxgamblemaster-2008-10-18Secondhandvinyl
Record (consensus markets)54% (371–318, n=689)48% (446–481, n=927)59% (40–28, n=68)91% (163–17, n=180)
Consensus PnL$398K$521K$532K$897
Tracked asPM monthly #8PM monthly #19PM monthly #15 + pinnedPM monthly #981
Sides with the consensus69% (117 of 169 open)51% (41 of 80 open)50% (6 of 12 open)no open consensus position
Strongest topics
  • NBA +45 pts n=29, ROI +40%
Weakest topic————
Settled positions, side won100% of 194 at avg 53¢, ROI +47%100% of 301 at avg 51¢, ROI +44%100% of 39 at avg 57¢, ROI +38%100% of 163 at avg 91¢, ROI +6%
Entries under 30¢1% (won 100% of 2)6% (won 100% of 19)3% (won 100% of 1)1% (won 100% of 2)
Entries 30–50¢32% (won 100% of 62)37% (won 100% of 110)33% (won 100% of 13)1% (won 100% of 2)
Entries 50–70¢59% (won 100% of 115)50% (won 100% of 150)44% (won 100% of 17)3% (won 100% of 5)
Entries 70¢ and up8% (won 100% of 15)7% (won 100% of 22)21% (won 100% of 8)94% (won 100% of 154)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

19 on the same side, 19 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

MarketHomeRunHazardkeeptheblueflagflyinghighrobloxgamblemaster-2008-10-18Secondhandvinyl
Spread: Thunder (-7.5)
opposite sides · consensus Clippers
Clippers $1.7KClippers $910Thunder $8.2K—
Warriors vs. Spurs
opposite sides · consensus Spurs
Spurs $3.2KWarriors $241Warriors $2.8K—
Thunder vs. Clippers
opposite sides · consensus Thunder
—Clippers $264Thunder $267K—
Spread: Trail Blazers (-10.5)
opposite sides · consensus Kings
Kings $499Trail Blazers $29K——
Thunder vs. Clippers: O/U 222.5
opposite sides · consensus Over
Under $9.8KOver $19K——
Spread: Thunder (-6.5)
opposite sides · consensus Clippers
Thunder $22KClippers $39——
Spread: Trail Blazers (-9.5)
opposite sides · consensus Trail Blazers
Trail Blazers $376Kings $22K——
Spread: UCLA (-10.5)
opposite sides · consensus UCLA
Illinois $434UCLA $21K——
Spread: Spurs (-13.5)
opposite sides · consensus Spurs
Spurs $15KWarriors $2——
Predators vs. Golden Knights
opposite sides · consensus Golden Knights
Predators $3.6KGolden Knights $11K——
Spread: Thunder (-5.5)
opposite sides · consensus Clippers
Thunder $12KClippers $355——
Warriors vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5
opposite sides · consensus Under
Under $6.1KOver $2——
Illinois vs. UCLA: O/U 47.5
opposite sides · consensus Under
Over $810Under $847——
Warriors vs. Spurs: O/U 220.5
opposite sides · consensus Under
Under $1.2KOver $3——
Spread: Rockets (-12.5)
opposite sides · consensus Jazz
Rockets $12Jazz $1.0K——
Trail Blazers vs. Kings: O/U 230.5
opposite sides · consensus Over
Over $391Under $613——
Arizona Wildcats vs. Auburn Tigers
opposite sides · consensus Arizona Wildcats
Arizona Wildcats $429Auburn Tigers $20——
Spread: Trail Blazers (-7.5)
opposite sides · consensus Kings
Kings $119Trail Blazers $214——
Spread: Virginia Cavaliers (-5.5)
opposite sides · consensus Maryland Terrapins
Maryland Terrapins $42Virginia Cavaliers $190——
Warriors vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5
same side · consensus Under
Under $8.7KUnder $51K——
Spread: Spurs (-12.5)
same side · consensus Spurs
Spurs $25KSpurs $24K——
Rangers vs. Canucks
same side · consensus Rangers
Rangers $3.5KRangers $39K——
Spread: Rockets (-17.5)
same side · consensus Jazz
Jazz $8.7KJazz $1.1K——
Spread: Spurs (-11.5)
same side · consensus Spurs
Spurs $5.5KSpurs $746——
Trail Blazers vs. Kings: O/U 228.5
same side · consensus Over
Over $71Over $5.4K——
Spread: UCLA (-7.5)
same side · consensus UCLA
UCLA $620UCLA $3.6K——
Spread: Houston (-6.5)
same side · consensus Houston
Colorado $2.8KColorado $699——
Trail Blazers vs. Kings: O/U 229.5
same side · consensus Over
Over $3.2KOver $18——
Trail Blazers vs. Kings
same side · consensus Trail Blazers
Trail Blazers $2.4KTrail Blazers $481——
Spread: Rockets (-16.5)
same side · consensus Jazz
Jazz $2.7KJazz $10——
Warriors vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5
same side · consensus Over
Over $2.6KOver $5——
Spread: Thunder (-8.5)
same side · consensus Clippers
Clippers $40Clippers $593——
Spread: Spurs (-15.5)
same side · consensus Warriors
Warriors $173Warriors $77——
Spread: Thunder (-4.5)
same side · consensus Clippers
Clippers $185Clippers $25——
Spread: Trail Blazers (-12.5)
same side · consensus Trail Blazers
Kings $44Kings $16——
Stanford Cardinal vs. UNLV Runnin' Rebels
same side · consensus UNLV Runnin' Rebels
Stanford Cardinal $2Stanford Cardinal $19——
Spread: Trail Blazers (-11.5)
same side · consensus Trail Blazers
Kings $3Kings $5——
UIC Flames vs. Saint Mary's Gaels
same side · consensus Saint Mary's Gaels
UIC Flames $3UIC Flames $2——