Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Kings, while the market favors Trail Blazers (66%). 12 of 17 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Trail Blazers (-7.5)

12 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Kings (71%) · Kings at 34¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 14

Trail Blazers66¢Kings34¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Kings

Consensus Traders

Kings 71%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.5K

Combined PnL

-$167.47

Smart Money Entry

43.8¢ → 34¢

-22% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

AvoidKings at 34%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Kings

12 of 17 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors Trail Blazers 66%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Trail Blazers66%

Kings34%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Trail Blazers5 traders

Total Value$668

Total Shares1,001

Combined PnL+$48.74

Kings12 traders

Total Value$639.1

Total Shares1,850

Combined PnL-$216.21

Trail Blazers — 29%Kings — 71%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+21 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 62%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

64% of non-arb traders are on Kings. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrTrail Blazers 50% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedKings 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Kings 64% · 14

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SU suntori	Trail Blazersavg 67.1¢	$288.56	$283.87	-$4.69	46% 2359-2814 (5173)
RN1CTR	Kingsavg 47.8¢	$305.05	$216.8	-$88.26	56% 5073-4021 (9094)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Trail Blazersavg 48¢	$180.05	$213.75	+$33.7	51% 2368-2313 (4681)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Trail Blazersavg 53.7¢	$183.39	$207.59	+$24.2	50% 3544-3611 (7155)
└ Trail Blazers leg	Trail Blazersavg 53.7¢	$117.94	$138.4	+$20.46
└ Kings leg	Kingsavg 35¢	$65.45	$69.19	+$3.74
CA CandleHammerDrumsCTR	Kingsavg 47.9¢	$191.93	$148.34	-$43.58	48% 465-495 (960)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Kingsavg 39¢	$125.58	$119.14	-$6.44	57% 3570-2717 (6287)
TA takeormake	Trail Blazersavg 62.5¢	$110.9	$113.68	+$5.24	58% 3436-2532 (5968)
38 38791873984189CTR	Kingsavg 35.8¢	$332.8	$64.57	-$59.14	48% 2942-3249 (6191)
65 6512395314597884<$100	Trail Blazersavg 53.1¢	$40.71	$55.13	+$14.42	50% 3689-3644 (7333)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Kingsavg 48.2¢	$82.52	$29.79	-$16.5	49% 1349-1396 (2745)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Kingsavg 38¢	$25.82	$25.14	-$0.68	36% 893-1601 (2494)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Kingsavg 38¢	$19.25	$18.74	-$0.51	36% 883-1569 (2452)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100	Kingsavg 48¢	$9.2	$8.23	-$0.97	55% 1350-1126 (2476)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Kingsavg 38¢	$2.81	$2.74	-$0.07	37% 926-1560 (2486)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Kingsavg 35¢	$2.57	$2.71	+$0.15	37% 841-1416 (2257)
FO forecastication4<$100	Trail Blazersavg 60¢	$1.5	$1.58	+$0.07	32% 147-308 (455)
MI micky456CTR<$100	Kingsavg 31¢	$6.88	$1.46	-$0.25	47% 489-544 (1033)
AN Anon455CTR<$100	Kingsavg 33¢	$1.4	$1.45	+$0.04	50% 368-373 (741)

suntori

Trail Blazers

Invested

$288.56

Value

$283.87

PnL

-$4.69

Record

46%

2359-2814 (5173)

RN1CTR

Kings

Invested

$305.05

Value

$216.8

PnL

-$88.26

Record

56%

5073-4021 (9094)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Trail Blazers

Invested

$180.05

Value

$213.75

PnL

+$33.7

Record

51%

2368-2313 (4681)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$183.39

Value

$207.59

PnL

+$24.2

Record

50%

3544-3611 (7155)

Both legs:

Trail Blazers$117.9453.7¢+$20.46

Kings$65.4535¢+$3.74

CandleHammerDrumsCTR

Kings

Invested

$191.93

Value

$148.34

PnL

-$43.58

Record

48%

465-495 (960)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Kings

Invested

$125.58

Value

$119.14

PnL

-$6.44

Record

57%

3570-2717 (6287)

takeormake

Trail Blazers

Invested

$110.9

Value

$113.68

PnL

+$5.24

Record

58%

3436-2532 (5968)

38791873984189CTR

Kings

Invested

$332.8

Value

$64.57

PnL

-$59.14

Record

48%

2942-3249 (6191)

6512395314597884<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$40.71

Value

$55.13

PnL

+$14.42

Record

50%

3689-3644 (7333)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Kings

Invested

$82.52

Value

$29.79

PnL

-$16.5

Record

49%

1349-1396 (2745)

VenusianCTR<$100

Kings

Invested

$25.82

Value

$25.14

PnL

-$0.68

Record

36%

893-1601 (2494)

LimousinCTR<$100

Kings

Invested

$19.25

Value

$18.74

PnL

-$0.51

Record

36%

883-1569 (2452)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100

Kings

Invested

$9.2

Value

$8.23

PnL

-$0.97

Record

55%

1350-1126 (2476)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Kings

Invested

$2.81

Value

$2.74

PnL

-$0.07

Record

37%

926-1560 (2486)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Kings

Invested

$2.57

Value

$2.71

PnL

+$0.15

Record

37%

841-1416 (2257)

forecastication4<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$1.5

Value

$1.58

PnL

+$0.07

Record

32%

147-308 (455)

micky456CTR<$100

Kings

Invested

$6.88

Value

$1.46

PnL

-$0.25

Record

47%

489-544 (1033)

Anon455CTR<$100

Kings

Invested

$1.4

Value

$1.45

PnL

+$0.04

Record

50%

368-373 (741)

Research grade

AvoidKings at 34%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Kings

12 of 17 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors Trail Blazers 66%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+21 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 62%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

64% of non-arb traders are on Kings. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrTrail Blazers 50% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedKings 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Kings 64% · 14

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Kings wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance36.1%

34.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$176.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

276.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.