Arizona Wildcats vs. Auburn Tigers

10 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold Arizona Wildcats (53%) · Arizona Wildcats at 84¢ · $14K held · ended Nov 14

Arizona Wildcats84¢Auburn Tigers16¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Arizona Wildcats

Consensus Traders

Arizona Wildcats 53%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$14.3K

Combined PnL

$595.09

Smart Money Entry

70.3¢ → 83.5¢

+19% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

AvoidArizona Wildcats at 84%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Arizona Wildcats

10 of 19 top traders (53%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Arizona Wildcats84%

Auburn Tigers17%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Arizona Wildcats10 traders

Total Value$13.1K

Total Shares15,082

Combined PnL+$727.5

Auburn Tigers9 traders

Total Value$269.87

Total Shares1,155

Combined PnL-$132.41

Arizona Wildcats — 53%Auburn Tigers — 47%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-6 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 63%

Freshness

Mature

20h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

61% of non-arb traders are on Arizona Wildcats. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 63% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpAuburn Tigers 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrArizona Wildcats 63% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedArizona Wildcats 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Arizona Wildcats 59% · 17

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TA takeormake	Arizona Wildcatsavg 78.8¢	$5.7K	$5.6K	-$92.4	58% 3427-2519 (5946)
FL Flaznorp	Arizona Wildcatsavg 73.2¢	$4.1K	$4.5K	+$428.07	50% 3526-3585 (7111)
IM imjustkenisghey	Arizona Wildcatsavg 54.6¢	$1.4K	$1.6K	+$238.22	44% 26-33 (59)
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Auburn Tigersavg 46.4¢	$552.89	$559.29	+$8.02	53% 750-669 (1419)
└ Arizona Wildcats leg	Arizona Wildcatsavg 50¢	$262.5	$336	+$73.5
└ Auburn Tigers leg	Auburn Tigersavg 46.4¢	$288.07	$223.29	-$65.48
0xheavy888	Arizona Wildcatsavg 54.5¢	$362.97	$426.24	+$63.27	54% 437-367 (804)
HO HomeRunHazard	Arizona Wildcatsavg 56.5¢	$369.11	$397.51	+$28.4	57% 3567-2709 (6276)
RN1	Arizona Wildcatsavg 66.2¢	$373.33	$377.86	+$4.53	56% 5043-4004 (9047)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100	Auburn Tigersavg 28¢	$200.2	$240.2	+$40	54% 1316-1100 (2416)
└ Auburn Tigers leg	Auburn Tigersavg 28¢	$140	$180	+$40
└ Arizona Wildcats leg	Arizona Wildcatsavg 64¢	$60.2	$60.2	-$0
VeryLucky888	Arizona Wildcatsavg 54.5¢	$178.64	$128	+$20.28	53% 1179-1029 (2208)
tradecraftARB<$100	Arizona Wildcatsavg 87¢	$193.14	$110.85	-$69.28	29% 298-747 (1045)
└ Arizona Wildcats leg	Arizona Wildcatsavg 87¢	$87	$85.5	-$1.5
└ Auburn Tigers leg	Auburn Tigersavg 38.6¢	$67.52	$25.35	-$67.78
SU suitcase6628CTR	Auburn Tigersavg 32¢	$160	$72.5	-$87.5	64% 527-296 (823)
HI hi774c<$100	Arizona Wildcatsavg 57¢	$63.11	$70.86	+$7.75	22% 158-576 (734)
TH thirdt1me	Arizona Wildcatsavg 71.5¢	$283.85	$52.45	+$23.36	48% 243-263 (506)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Auburn Tigersavg 43¢	$47.61	$39.86	-$7.75	46% 2333-2789 (5122)
0X 0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186CTR<$100	Auburn Tigersavg 38¢	$38.19	$36.18	-$2.01	49% 516-536 (1052)
BO BoomLaLaCTR<$100	Auburn Tigersavg 43¢	$43	$36	-$7	34% 144-285 (429)
38 38791873984189CTR	Auburn Tigersavg 26.9¢	$440.88	$29.54	-$18.44	48% 2922-3218 (6140)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Auburn Tigersavg 26.4¢	$47.72	$28.01	-$2.29	49% 1329-1376 (2705)
ARTEM-DZYUBACTR<$100	Auburn Tigersavg 49¢	$19.6	$14.4	-$5.2	82% 643-144 (787)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Auburn Tigersavg 27.7¢	$14.61	$13.16	-$1.44	51% 2364-2297 (4661)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Arizona Wildcatsavg 64¢	$28.05	$8.9	+$6.02	49% 1865-1975 (3840)
SU SunflowaRebuildYearCTR<$100	Auburn Tigersavg 30¢	$1	$0.22	-$0.78	11% 55-453 (508)

takeormake

Arizona Wildcats

Invested

$5,660.85

Value

$5.6K

PnL

-$92.4

Record

58%

3427-2519 (5946)

Flaznorp

Arizona Wildcats

Invested

$4,054.9

Value

$4.5K

PnL

+$428.07

Record

50%

3526-3585 (7111)

imjustkenisghey

Arizona Wildcats

Invested

$1,387.68

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$238.22

Record

44%

26-33 (59)

NotJumpARB<$100

Auburn Tigers

Invested

$552.89

Value

$559.29

PnL

+$8.02

Record

53%

750-669 (1419)

Both legs:

Arizona Wildcats$262.550¢+$73.5

Auburn Tigers$288.0746.4¢-$65.48

0xheavy888

Arizona Wildcats

Invested

$362.97

Value

$426.24

PnL

+$63.27

Record

54%

437-367 (804)

HomeRunHazard

Arizona Wildcats

Invested

$369.11

Value

$397.51

PnL

+$28.4

Record

57%

3567-2709 (6276)

RN1

Arizona Wildcats

Invested

$373.33

Value

$377.86

PnL

+$4.53

Record

56%

5043-4004 (9047)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100

Auburn Tigers

Invested

$200.2

Value

$240.2

PnL

+$40

Record

54%

1316-1100 (2416)

Both legs:

Auburn Tigers$14028¢+$40

Arizona Wildcats$60.264¢-$0

VeryLucky888

Arizona Wildcats

Invested

$178.64

Value

$128

PnL

+$20.28

Record

53%

1179-1029 (2208)

tradecraftARB<$100

Arizona Wildcats

Invested

$193.14

Value

$110.85

PnL

-$69.28

Record

29%

298-747 (1045)

Both legs:

Arizona Wildcats$8787¢-$1.5

Auburn Tigers$67.5238.6¢-$67.78

suitcase6628CTR

Auburn Tigers

Invested

$160

Value

$72.5

PnL

-$87.5

Record

64%

527-296 (823)

hi774c<$100

Arizona Wildcats

Invested

$63.11

Value

$70.86

PnL

+$7.75

Record

22%

158-576 (734)

thirdt1me

Arizona Wildcats

Invested

$283.85

Value

$52.45

PnL

+$23.36

Record

48%

243-263 (506)

suntoriCTR<$100

Auburn Tigers

Invested

$47.61

Value

$39.86

PnL

-$7.75

Record

46%

2333-2789 (5122)

0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186CTR<$100

Auburn Tigers

Invested

$38.19

Value

$36.18

PnL

-$2.01

Record

49%

516-536 (1052)

BoomLaLaCTR<$100

Auburn Tigers

Invested

$43

Value

$36

PnL

-$7

Record

34%

144-285 (429)

38791873984189CTR

Auburn Tigers

Invested

$440.88

Value

$29.54

PnL

-$18.44

Record

48%

2922-3218 (6140)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Auburn Tigers

Invested

$47.72

Value

$28.01

PnL

-$2.29

Record

49%

1329-1376 (2705)

ARTEM-DZYUBACTR<$100

Auburn Tigers

Invested

$19.6

Value

$14.4

PnL

-$5.2

Record

82%

643-144 (787)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Auburn Tigers

Invested

$14.61

Value

$13.16

PnL

-$1.44

Record

51%

2364-2297 (4661)

ferdinand2<$100

Arizona Wildcats

Invested

$28.05

Value

$8.9

PnL

+$6.02

Record

49%

1865-1975 (3840)

SunflowaRebuildYearCTR<$100

Auburn Tigers

Invested

Value

$0.22

PnL

-$0.78

Record

11%

55-453 (508)

Research grade

AvoidArizona Wildcats at 84%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Arizona Wildcats

10 of 19 top traders (53%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-6 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 63%

Freshness

Mature

20h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

61% of non-arb traders are on Arizona Wildcats. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 63% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpAuburn Tigers 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrArizona Wildcats 63% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedArizona Wildcats 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Arizona Wildcats 59% · 17

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Arizona Wildcats wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance85.2%

83.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$17.43

Max Loss

-$100.00

117.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.