Spread: Thunder (-8.5)

9 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Clippers (56%) · Clippers at 56¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 14

Thunder45¢Clippers55¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Clippers

Consensus Traders

Clippers 56%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.9K

Combined PnL

$144.22

Smart Money Entry

57.4¢ → 55.5¢

-3% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidClippers at 56%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Clippers

9 of 16 top traders (56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Thunder45%

Clippers56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Thunder7 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares4,452

Combined PnL+$138.89

Clippers9 traders

Total Value$2.8K

Total Shares4,895

Combined PnL+$5.33

Thunder — 44%Clippers — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+17 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Mature

17h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Clippers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Clippers) and the top 1000 (11 on Thunder) disagree here.

ctrClippers 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedClippers 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Thunder 55% · 11

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Thunderavg 41.2¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$106.64	55% 1350-1126 (2476)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Clippersavg 58¢	$580	$570	-$10	51% 470-452 (922)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Clippersavg 54¢	$542.7	$557.78	+$15.08	51% 2368-2313 (4681)
VeryLucky888	Clippersavg 59¢	$518.83	$518.83	+$0	53% 1186-1032 (2218)
QW QWUERHAIUKSJNFSNCF	Clippersavg 55¢	$453.14	$486.1	+$32.96	38% 17-28 (45)
RN1	Clippersavg 61.7¢	$500.88	$462.82	-$38.06	56% 5073-4021 (9094)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Thunderavg 40.9¢	$356.25	$374.77	+$18.52	50% 3544-3611 (7155)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Thunderavg 37.8¢	$141.38	$148.69	+$10.53	56% 4019-3135 (7154)
└ Thunder leg	Thunderavg 37.8¢	$82.86	$97.6	+$14.84
└ Clippers leg	Clippersavg 60.2¢	$55.39	$51.09	-$4.3
AN Anon455CTR	Thunderavg 35¢	$102.28	$118.35	+$16.07	50% 368-373 (741)
CA CandleHammerDrums<$100	Clippersavg 58¢	$87	$88.5	+$1.5	48% 465-495 (960)
38 38791873984189<$100	Clippersavg 58¢	$71.92	$73.16	+$1.24	48% 2942-3249 (6191)
HO HomeRunHazard<$100	Clippersavg 55.9¢	$38.04	$40.18	+$2.14	57% 3570-2717 (6287)
PA Pan9X<$100	Clippersavg 57.2¢	$36.87	$23.91	+$0.48	49% 1349-1396 (2745)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Thunderavg 44¢	$25.56	$23.24	-$2.32	43% 920-1244 (2164)
GC GC-PCTR<$100	Thunderavg 40¢	$3.33	$3.42	+$0.08	36% 319-557 (876)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Thunderavg 39¢	$1.95	$2.15	+$0.2	49% 1883-1987 (3870)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Thunderavg 46¢	$2.3	$2	-$0.3	40% 614-914 (1528)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Thunder

Invested

$1,322.51

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$106.64

Record

55%

1350-1126 (2476)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Clippers

Invested

$580

Value

$570

PnL

-$10

Record

51%

470-452 (922)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Clippers

Invested

$542.7

Value

$557.78

PnL

+$15.08

Record

51%

2368-2313 (4681)

VeryLucky888

Clippers

Invested

$518.83

Value

$518.83

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

1186-1032 (2218)

QWUERHAIUKSJNFSNCF

Clippers

Invested

$453.14

Value

$486.1

PnL

+$32.96

Record

38%

17-28 (45)

RN1

Clippers

Invested

$500.88

Value

$462.82

PnL

-$38.06

Record

56%

5073-4021 (9094)

FlaznorpCTR

Thunder

Invested

$356.25

Value

$374.77

PnL

+$18.52

Record

50%

3544-3611 (7155)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Thunder

Invested

$141.38

Value

$148.69

PnL

+$10.53

Record

56%

4019-3135 (7154)

Both legs:

Thunder$82.8637.8¢+$14.84

Clippers$55.3960.2¢-$4.3

Anon455CTR

Thunder

Invested

$102.28

Value

$118.35

PnL

+$16.07

Record

50%

368-373 (741)

CandleHammerDrums<$100

Clippers

Invested

$87

Value

$88.5

PnL

+$1.5

Record

48%

465-495 (960)

38791873984189<$100

Clippers

Invested

$71.92

Value

$73.16

PnL

+$1.24

Record

48%

2942-3249 (6191)

HomeRunHazard<$100

Clippers

Invested

$38.04

Value

$40.18

PnL

+$2.14

Record

57%

3570-2717 (6287)

Pan9X<$100

Clippers

Invested

$36.87

Value

$23.91

PnL

+$0.48

Record

49%

1349-1396 (2745)

sentrioCTR<$100

Thunder

Invested

$25.56

Value

$23.24

PnL

-$2.32

Record

43%

920-1244 (2164)

GC-PCTR<$100

Thunder

Invested

$3.33

Value

$3.42

PnL

+$0.08

Record

36%

319-557 (876)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Thunder

Invested

$1.95

Value

$2.15

PnL

+$0.2

Record

49%

1883-1987 (3870)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Thunder

Invested

$2.3

Value

PnL

-$0.3

Record

40%

614-914 (1528)

Research grade

AvoidClippers at 56%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Clippers

9 of 16 top traders (56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+17 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Mature

17h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Clippers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Clippers) and the top 1000 (11 on Thunder) disagree here.

ctrClippers 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedClippers 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Thunder 55% · 11

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Clippers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance57.7%

55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$73.22

Max Loss

-$100.00

173.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.