Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Trail Blazers, while the market favors Kings (55%). 11 of 17 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Trail Blazers (-11.5)

11 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Trail Blazers (65%) · Trail Blazers at 46¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 14

Trail Blazers46¢Kings54¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Trail Blazers

Consensus Traders

Trail Blazers 65%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.6K

Combined PnL

$71.79

Smart Money Entry

47.2¢ → 45.5¢

-4% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

AvoidTrail Blazers at 46%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Trail Blazers

11 of 17 top traders (65%)Underdog side (market favors Kings 55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Trail Blazers46%

Kings55%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Trail Blazers11 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares1,895

Combined PnL+$76.44

Kings6 traders

Total Value$247.43

Total Shares485

Combined PnL-$4.64

Trail Blazers — 65%Kings — 35%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 45%

Freshness

Mature

22h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

71% of non-arb traders are on Trail Blazers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 45% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Kings) and the top 1000 (14 on Trail Blazers) disagree here.

ctrTrail Blazers 75% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedKings 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Trail Blazers 71% · 14

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JU justaluckydudeCTR	Trail Blazersavg 51.1¢	$298.89	$318.83	+$19.94	44% 422-532 (954)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Kingsavg 55.5¢	$488.63	$315.02	-$65.22	50% 3544-3611 (7155)
└ Kings leg	Kingsavg 55.5¢	$299.11	$245.29	-$53.82
└ Trail Blazers leg	Trail Blazersavg 46¢	$58.86	$69.73	-$11.4
RN1	Kingsavg 52.1¢	$225.35	$197.67	-$2.79	56% 5073-4021 (9094)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Trail Blazersavg 45.3¢	$143.99	$157.28	+$13.29	55% 1350-1126 (2476)
TA takeormakeCTR	Trail Blazersavg 48.7¢	$158.78	$155.53	+$0.25	58% 3436-2532 (5968)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR	Trail Blazersavg 42.5¢	$104.77	$127.27	+$22.5	56% 4019-3135 (7154)
QW QWUERHAIUKSJNFSNCFCTR<$100	Trail Blazersavg 49¢	$97.36	$97.36	+$0	38% 17-28 (45)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Trail Blazersavg 38¢	$40.28	$51.82	+$11.54	48% 2942-3249 (6191)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Trail Blazersavg 45.2¢	$41.98	$45.46	+$3.48	43% 920-1244 (2164)
MI micky456CTR<$100	Trail Blazersavg 48.9¢	$31.28	$25.24	+$1.89	47% 489-544 (1033)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Trail Blazersavg 38¢	$19.02	$22.27	+$3.25	49% 1349-1396 (2745)
CA CandleHammerDrums<$100	Kingsavg 52¢	$22.36	$21.98	-$0.38	48% 465-495 (960)
NA NatoAlfista<$100	Kingsavg 55¢	$19.58	$18.2	-$1.38	41% 146-213 (359)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Trail Blazersavg 48¢	$4.8	$4.9	+$0.1	55% 441-368 (809)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Trail Blazersavg 47¢	$4.7	$4.9	+$0.2	40% 614-914 (1528)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Kingsavg 50.8¢	$4.79	$4.86	+$0.07	51% 2368-2313 (4681)
HO HomeRunHazard<$100	Kingsavg 50¢	$2.5	$2.56	+$0.06	57% 3570-2717 (6287)
SU suntori<$100	Kingsavg 56¢	$2.38	$2.17	-$0.21	46% 2359-2814 (5173)

justaluckydudeCTR

Trail Blazers

Invested

$298.89

Value

$318.83

PnL

+$19.94

Record

44%

422-532 (954)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Kings

Invested

$488.63

Value

$315.02

PnL

-$65.22

Record

50%

3544-3611 (7155)

Both legs:

Kings$299.1155.5¢-$53.82

Trail Blazers$58.8646¢-$11.4

RN1

Kings

Invested

$225.35

Value

$197.67

PnL

-$2.79

Record

56%

5073-4021 (9094)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Trail Blazers

Invested

$143.99

Value

$157.28

PnL

+$13.29

Record

55%

1350-1126 (2476)

takeormakeCTR

Trail Blazers

Invested

$158.78

Value

$155.53

PnL

+$0.25

Record

58%

3436-2532 (5968)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR

Trail Blazers

Invested

$104.77

Value

$127.27

PnL

+$22.5

Record

56%

4019-3135 (7154)

QWUERHAIUKSJNFSNCFCTR<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$97.36

Value

$97.36

PnL

+$0

Record

38%

17-28 (45)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$40.28

Value

$51.82

PnL

+$11.54

Record

48%

2942-3249 (6191)

sentrioCTR<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$41.98

Value

$45.46

PnL

+$3.48

Record

43%

920-1244 (2164)

micky456CTR<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$31.28

Value

$25.24

PnL

+$1.89

Record

47%

489-544 (1033)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$19.02

Value

$22.27

PnL

+$3.25

Record

49%

1349-1396 (2745)

CandleHammerDrums<$100

Kings

Invested

$22.36

Value

$21.98

PnL

-$0.38

Record

48%

465-495 (960)

NatoAlfista<$100

Kings

Invested

$19.58

Value

$18.2

PnL

-$1.38

Record

41%

146-213 (359)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$4.8

Value

$4.9

PnL

+$0.1

Record

55%

441-368 (809)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$4.7

Value

$4.9

PnL

+$0.2

Record

40%

614-914 (1528)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Kings

Invested

$4.79

Value

$4.86

PnL

+$0.07

Record

51%

2368-2313 (4681)

HomeRunHazard<$100

Kings

Invested

$2.5

Value

$2.56

PnL

+$0.06

Record

57%

3570-2717 (6287)

suntori<$100

Kings

Invested

$2.38

Value

$2.17

PnL

-$0.21

Record

46%

2359-2814 (5173)

Research grade

AvoidTrail Blazers at 46%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Trail Blazers

11 of 17 top traders (65%)Underdog side (market favors Kings 55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 45%

Freshness

Mature

22h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

71% of non-arb traders are on Trail Blazers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 45% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Kings) and the top 1000 (14 on Trail Blazers) disagree here.

ctrTrail Blazers 75% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedKings 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Trail Blazers 71% · 14

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Trail Blazers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance47.7%

45.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$109.45

Max Loss

-$100.00

209.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.