Warriors vs. Spurs: O/U 220.5
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 56¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 14
⚠️
Avoid
Under
4
Under 50%
1 arb excluded
$1.2K
$11.68
53.1¢ → 56.5¢
+6% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 56%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100 | Underavg 53.2¢ | $559.64 | $556.8 | -$2.84 | 57% 3561-2704 (6265) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 53.2¢ | $279.98 | $289.3 | +$9.32 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 46¢ | $279.66 | $267.5 | -$12.16 | |
DA DanielsDixon | Underavg 53¢ | $528.24 | $548.18 | +$19.93 | 8% 5-58 (63) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Overavg 47.1¢ | $117.65 | $57.2 | -$7.65 | 53% 1030-921 (1951) |
 0xheavy888CTR<$100 | Overavg 44.9¢ | $31.39 | $30.8 | -$0.6 | 53% 388-339 (727) |
TO tomb2456<$100 | Underavg 55¢ | $18.36 | $18.36 | -$0 | 53% 31-28 (59) |
Invested
$559.64
Value
$556.8
PnL
-$2.84
Record
57%
3561-2704 (6265)
Both legs:
Invested
$528.24
Value
$548.18
PnL
+$19.93
Record
8%
5-58 (63)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$117.65
Value
$57.2
PnL
-$7.65
Record
53%
1030-921 (1951)
0xheavy888CTR<$100Invested
$31.39
Value
$30.8
PnL
-$0.6
Record
53%
388-339 (727)
Invested
$18.36
Value
$18.36
PnL
-$0
Record
53%
31-28 (59)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.