Spread: Rockets (-12.5)

6 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Jazz (50%) · Jazz at 99¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 14

Rockets1¢Jazz99¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Jazz

Consensus Traders

Jazz 50%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.6K

Combined PnL

$724.72

Smart Money Entry

50.6¢ → 99¢

+96% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidJazz at 99%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Jazz

6 of 12 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Rockets1%

Jazz99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Jazz6 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares1,940

Combined PnL+$798.88

Rockets6 traders

Total Value$370.09

Total Shares1,233

Combined PnL-$74.16

Jazz — 50%Rockets — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-17 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Jazz. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrJazz 67% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Jazz 50% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Jazzavg 81.6¢	$1.4K	$1.2K	-$186.69	50% 3544-3611 (7155)
└ Jazz leg	Jazzavg 81.6¢	$1.2K	$905.56	-$249.09
└ Rockets leg	Rocketsavg 27.6¢	$203.81	$266.21	+$62.4
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Jazzavg 36¢	$361.75	$969.82	+$608.07	51% 2368-2313 (4681)
TA takeormake	Jazzavg 71.5¢	$527.19	$670.64	+$143.45	58% 3436-2532 (5968)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Rocketsavg 18.2¢	$1.1K	$297.88	+$46.17	55% 1350-1126 (2476)
RN1ARB<$100	Jazzavg 55¢	$195.68	$271.14	+$75.46	56% 5073-4021 (9094)
└ Jazz leg	Jazzavg 55¢	$134.2	$156.16	+$21.96
└ Rockets leg	Rocketsavg 19.2¢	$61.48	$114.98	+$53.5
CA CandleHammerDrums<$100	Jazzavg 48¢	$72	$96	+$24	48% 465-495 (960)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Rocketsavg 55.8¢	$47.69	$30.78	-$16.92	48% 2942-3249 (6191)
US User7429CTR	Rocketsavg 45¢	$117.5	$23.5	-$94	39% 296-462 (758)
SU suntori<$100	Jazzavg 40¢	$11.42	$18.27	+$6.85	46% 2359-2814 (5173)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100	Rocketsavg 60¢	$20.13	$12.08	-$8.05	57% 3570-2717 (6287)
PA Pan9X<$100	Jazzavg 50.1¢	$41.97	$10.34	+$14.08	49% 1349-1396 (2745)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Jazzavg 38¢	$3.53	$5.95	+$2.42	48% 855-936 (1791)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Rocketsavg 6¢	$5.07	$4.32	+$4.25	49% 1883-1987 (3870)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Rocketsavg 42¢	$7.14	$1.53	-$5.61	59% 3410-2403 (5813)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Jazz

Invested

$1,358.46

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$186.69

Record

50%

3544-3611 (7155)

Both legs:

Jazz$1,154.6581.6¢-$249.09

Rockets$203.8127.6¢+$62.4

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Jazz

Invested

$361.75

Value

$969.82

PnL

+$608.07

Record

51%

2368-2313 (4681)

takeormake

Jazz

Invested

$527.19

Value

$670.64

PnL

+$143.45

Record

58%

3436-2532 (5968)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Rockets

Invested

$1,129.41

Value

$297.88

PnL

+$46.17

Record

55%

1350-1126 (2476)

RN1ARB<$100

Jazz

Invested

$195.68

Value

$271.14

PnL

+$75.46

Record

56%

5073-4021 (9094)

Both legs:

Jazz$134.255¢+$21.96

Rockets$61.4819.2¢+$53.5

CandleHammerDrums<$100

Jazz

Invested

$72

Value

$96

PnL

+$24

Record

48%

465-495 (960)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Rockets

Invested

$47.69

Value

$30.78

PnL

-$16.92

Record

48%

2942-3249 (6191)

User7429CTR

Rockets

Invested

$117.5

Value

$23.5

PnL

-$94

Record

39%

296-462 (758)

suntori<$100

Jazz

Invested

$11.42

Value

$18.27

PnL

+$6.85

Record

46%

2359-2814 (5173)

HomeRunHazardCTR<$100

Rockets

Invested

$20.13

Value

$12.08

PnL

-$8.05

Record

57%

3570-2717 (6287)

Pan9X<$100

Jazz

Invested

$41.97

Value

$10.34

PnL

+$14.08

Record

49%

1349-1396 (2745)

SnakeBall<$100

Jazz

Invested

$3.53

Value

$5.95

PnL

+$2.42

Record

48%

855-936 (1791)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Rockets

Invested

$5.07

Value

$4.32

PnL

+$4.25

Record

49%

1883-1987 (3870)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Rockets

Invested

$7.14

Value

$1.53

PnL

-$5.61

Record

59%

3410-2403 (5813)

Research grade

AvoidJazz at 99%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Jazz

6 of 12 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-17 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Jazz. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrJazz 67% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Jazz 50% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Jazz wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.