Illinois vs. UCLA: O/U 47.5
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (33%) · Over at 52¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
Over
6
Over 33%
$2.7K
-$2.4
51.8¢ → 51.5¢
-1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 52%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
38 38791873984189 | Overavg 51.7¢ | $821.52 | $820.46 | -$1.07 | 48% 2787-3042 (5829) |
TH TheComboConnoisseur | Overavg 52¢ | $520 | $515 | -$5 | 8% 5-58 (63) |
 nigiri99CTR | Underavg 49¢ | $497.23 | $492.4 | -$4.83 | 53% 472-427 (899) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR | Underavg 48¢ | $483.73 | $488.77 | +$5.04 | 50% 2262-2219 (4481) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Underavg 48¢ | $260.98 | $263.69 | +$2.72 | 53% 1030-921 (1951) |
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100 | Underavg 48¢ | $71.04 | $71.78 | +$0.74 | 47% 191-212 (403) |
Invested
$821.52
Value
$820.46
PnL
-$1.07
Record
48%
2787-3042 (5829)
Invested
$520
Value
$515
PnL
-$5
Record
8%
5-58 (63)
nigiri99CTRInvested
$497.23
Value
$492.4
PnL
-$4.83
Record
53%
472-427 (899)
Invested
$483.73
Value
$488.77
PnL
+$5.04
Record
50%
2262-2219 (4481)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$260.98
Value
$263.69
PnL
+$2.72
Record
53%
1030-921 (1951)
Invested
$71.04
Value
$71.78
PnL
+$0.74
Record
47%
191-212 (403)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.