Trail Blazers vs. Kings: O/U 230.5

10 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold Over (53%) · Over at 55¢ · $6K held · ended Nov 14

Over55¢Under45¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 53%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.8K

Combined PnL

$65.12

Smart Money Entry

45.9¢ → 54.5¢

+19% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 55%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

10 of 19 top traders (53%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over55%

Under46%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over10 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares4,196

Combined PnL+$211.78

Under9 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares2,566

Combined PnL-$146.66

Over — 53%Under — 47%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
OM omnibus-076daa	Overavg 44.5¢	$985.13	$1.2K	+$221.49	45% 445-541 (986)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Underavg 57.1¢	$1.1K	$945.79	-$103.46	50% 3544-3611 (7155)
└ Under leg	Underavg 57.1¢	$816.32	$650.57	-$165.75
└ Over leg	Overavg 43¢	$233.18	$295.22	+$62.3
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100	Overavg 50.8¢	$3.4K	$869.77	-$17.48	55% 1350-1126 (2476)
└ Over leg	Overavg 50.8¢	$521.13	$528.13	+$143.09
└ Under leg	Underavg 55.5¢	$390.94	$341.64	-$160.57
RN1ARB<$100	Underavg 55.2¢	$1.1K	$709.65	-$94.69	56% 5073-4021 (9094)
└ Under leg	Underavg 55.2¢	$553.84	$456.43	-$97.41
└ Over leg	Overavg 49.4¢	$229.56	$253.23	+$2.72
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Underavg 52¢	$618.86	$541.5	-$77.36	51% 2368-2313 (4681)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Underavg 49.4¢	$1.0K	$487.69	-$45.43	51% 470-452 (922)
AN Anon455	Overavg 47¢	$409.13	$409.13	-$0	50% 368-373 (741)
HO HomeRunHazard	Overavg 47.8¢	$398.11	$391.19	-$6.93	57% 3570-2717 (6287)
38 38791873984189<$100	Overavg 48¢	$95.22	$93.42	-$1.8	48% 2942-3249 (6191)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100	Underavg 54¢	$97.74	$82.36	-$15.38	41% 146-213 (359)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Underavg 57.4¢	$33.52	$26.57	-$6.95	49% 1883-1987 (3870)
0X 0x3d5a9e66f15e6719927972135501c61efc53a0beCTR<$100	Underavg 55¢	$27.01	$26.03	-$0.98	3% 11-328 (339)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Overavg 45¢	$20.09	$20.98	+$0.89	35% 424-772 (1196)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Overavg 47¢	$6.96	$6.96	-$0	48% 855-936 (1791)
TA takeormake<$100	Overavg 45¢	$5.96	$6.3	+$0.33	58% 3436-2532 (5968)
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100	Underavg 57¢	$3.99	$3.19	-$0.8	50% 3689-3644 (7333)
0X 0x0A77exmmCTR<$100	Underavg 51¢	$2.55	$2.65	+$0.1	43% 34-45 (79)
NM NM-P<$100	Overavg 47¢	$2.35	$2.35	+$0	59% 3728-2540 (6268)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Overavg 48¢	$2.4	$2.35	-$0.05	40% 614-914 (1528)
PA Pan9X<$100	Overavg 48¢	$12	$1.85	-$2.15	49% 1349-1396 (2745)
MI micky456CTR<$100	Underavg 57¢	$2	$1.43	+$0.19	47% 489-544 (1033)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Underavg 55¢	$1.02	$0.98	-$0.04	46% 2359-2814 (5173)

omnibus-076daa

Over

Invested

$985.13

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$221.49

Record

45%

445-541 (986)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Under

Invested

$1,055.21

Value

$945.79

PnL

-$103.46

Record

50%

3544-3611 (7155)

Both legs:

Under$816.3257.1¢-$165.75

Over$233.1843¢+$62.3

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$3,352.63

Value

$869.77

PnL

-$17.48

Record

55%

1350-1126 (2476)

Both legs:

Over$521.1350.8¢+$143.09

Under$390.9455.5¢-$160.57

RN1ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$1,128.82

Value

$709.65

PnL

-$94.69

Record

56%

5073-4021 (9094)

Both legs:

Under$553.8455.2¢-$97.41

Over$229.5649.4¢+$2.72

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Under

Invested

$618.86

Value

$541.5

PnL

-$77.36

Record

51%

2368-2313 (4681)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Under

Invested

$1,006.68

Value

$487.69

PnL

-$45.43

Record

51%

470-452 (922)

Anon455

Over

Invested

$409.13

Value

$409.13

PnL

-$0

Record

50%

368-373 (741)

HomeRunHazard

Over

Invested

$398.11

Value

$391.19

PnL

-$6.93

Record

57%

3570-2717 (6287)

38791873984189<$100

Over

Invested

$95.22

Value

$93.42

PnL

-$1.8

Record

48%

2942-3249 (6191)

NatoAlfistaCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$97.74

Value

$82.36

PnL

-$15.38

Record

41%

146-213 (359)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$33.52

Value

$26.57

PnL

-$6.95

Record

49%

1883-1987 (3870)

0x3d5a9e66f15e6719927972135501c61efc53a0beCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$27.01

Value

$26.03

PnL

-$0.98

Record

11-328 (339)

LuckyLoo<$100

Over

Invested

$20.09

Value

$20.98

PnL

+$0.89

Record

35%

424-772 (1196)

SnakeBall<$100

Over

Invested

$6.96

Value

$6.96

PnL

-$0

Record

48%

855-936 (1791)

takeormake<$100

Over

Invested

$5.96

Value

$6.3

PnL

+$0.33

Record

58%

3436-2532 (5968)

6512395314597884CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$3.99

Value

$3.19

PnL

-$0.8

Record

50%

3689-3644 (7333)

0x0A77exmmCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.55

Value

$2.65

PnL

+$0.1

Record

43%

34-45 (79)

NM-P<$100

Over

Invested

$2.35

Value

$2.35

PnL

+$0

Record

59%

3728-2540 (6268)

ameisgoat11<$100

Over

Invested

$2.4

Value

$2.35

PnL

-$0.05

Record

40%

614-914 (1528)

Pan9X<$100

Over

Invested

$12

Value

$1.85

PnL

-$2.15

Record

49%

1349-1396 (2745)

micky456CTR<$100

Under

Invested

Value

$1.43

PnL

+$0.19

Record

47%

489-544 (1033)

suntoriCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.02

Value

$0.98

PnL

-$0.04

Record

46%

2359-2814 (5173)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 55%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

10 of 19 top traders (53%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.7%

54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$76.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

176.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.