Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Clippers, while the market favors Thunder (52%). 9 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Thunder (-4.5)

9 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Clippers (82%) · Clippers at 49¢ · $684 held · ended Nov 14

Thunder52¢Clippers48¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Clippers

Consensus Traders

Clippers 82%

Total Value

$683.79

Combined PnL

$32.25

Smart Money Entry

42.8¢ → 48.5¢

+13% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidClippers at 49%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Clippers

9 of 11 top traders (82%)Underdog side (market favors Thunder 52%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Thunder52%

Clippers49%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Clippers9 traders

Total Value$555.11

Total Shares1,195

Combined PnL+$39.22

Thunder2 traders

Total Value$128.68

Total Shares230

Combined PnL-$6.97

Clippers — 82%Thunder — 18%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+18 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on Clippers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleClippers 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrClippers 83% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Clippers 78% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpCTR	Clippersavg 44¢	$219.97	$219.97	+$0	50% 3544-3611 (7155)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Clippersavg 40¢	$174.5	$211.36	+$36.86	57% 3570-2717 (6287)
DA darkumbreon88	Thunderavg 59¢	$130.9	$124.24	-$6.66	62% 1024-638 (1662)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Clippersavg 46¢	$68.01	$69.51	+$1.5	48% 2942-3249 (6191)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Clippersavg 45¢	$14.89	$15.55	+$0.66	51% 2368-2313 (4681)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Clippersavg 46¢	$13.8	$13.2	-$0.6	49% 1349-1396 (2745)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Clippersavg 40¢	$10.98	$11.43	+$0.45	48% 855-936 (1791)
AN Anon455CTR<$100	Clippersavg 43¢	$8.54	$8.74	+$0.2	50% 368-373 (741)
SU suntori<$100	Thunderavg 60¢	$4.76	$4.44	-$0.32	46% 2359-2814 (5173)
SI Siddhartha1CTR<$100	Clippersavg 44¢	$3.14	$3.14	-$0	56% 102-79 (181)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Clippersavg 41¢	$2.05	$2.2	+$0.15	40% 614-914 (1528)

FlaznorpCTR

Clippers

Invested

$219.97

Value

$219.97

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

3544-3611 (7155)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Clippers

Invested

$174.5

Value

$211.36

PnL

+$36.86

Record

57%

3570-2717 (6287)

darkumbreon88

Thunder

Invested

$130.9

Value

$124.24

PnL

-$6.66

Record

62%

1024-638 (1662)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Clippers

Invested

$68.01

Value

$69.51

PnL

+$1.5

Record

48%

2942-3249 (6191)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Clippers

Invested

$14.89

Value

$15.55

PnL

+$0.66

Record

51%

2368-2313 (4681)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Clippers

Invested

$13.8

Value

$13.2

PnL

-$0.6

Record

49%

1349-1396 (2745)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Clippers

Invested

$10.98

Value

$11.43

PnL

+$0.45

Record

48%

855-936 (1791)

Anon455CTR<$100

Clippers

Invested

$8.54

Value

$8.74

PnL

+$0.2

Record

50%

368-373 (741)

suntori<$100

Thunder

Invested

$4.76

Value

$4.44

PnL

-$0.32

Record

46%

2359-2814 (5173)

Siddhartha1CTR<$100

Clippers

Invested

$3.14

Value

$3.14

PnL

-$0

Record

56%

102-79 (181)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Clippers

Invested

$2.05

Value

$2.2

PnL

+$0.15

Record

40%

614-914 (1528)

Research grade

AvoidClippers at 49%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Clippers

9 of 11 top traders (82%)Underdog side (market favors Thunder 52%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+18 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on Clippers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleClippers 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrClippers 83% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Clippers 78% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Clippers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance50.7%

48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$97.04

Max Loss

-$100.00

197.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.