Stanford Cardinal vs. UNLV Runnin' Rebels

11 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold UNLV Runnin' Rebels (65%) · UNLV Runnin' Rebels at 62¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 14

Stanford Cardinal39¢UNLV Runnin' Rebels61¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

UNLV Runnin' Rebels

Consensus Traders

UNLV Runnin' Rebels 65%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.7K

Combined PnL

$1.2K

Smart Money Entry

48.2¢ → 61.5¢

+27% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

AvoidUNLV Runnin' Rebels at 62%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

UNLV Runnin' Rebels

11 of 17 top traders (65%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Stanford Cardinal39%

UNLV Runnin' Rebels62%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

UNLV Runnin' Rebels11 traders

Total Value$3.1K

Total Shares3,761

Combined PnL+$1.2K

Stanford Cardinal6 traders

Total Value$37.55

Total Shares91

Combined PnL-$15.44

UNLV Runnin' Rebels — 65%Stanford Cardinal — 35%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+5 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

72% of non-arb traders are on UNLV Runnin' Rebels. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpUNLV Runnin' Rebels 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUNLV Runnin' Rebels 89% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedUNLV Runnin' Rebels 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000UNLV Runnin' Rebels 71% · 17

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
IM imjustkenisghey	UNLV Runnin' Rebelsavg 47¢	$1.3K	$2.3K	+$1.0K	44% 26-33 (59)
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Stanford Cardinalavg 50¢	$525	$519.26	+$0.05	53% 750-669 (1419)
└ UNLV Runnin' Rebels leg	UNLV Runnin' Rebelsavg 50¢	$257.33	$285.64	+$28.93
└ Stanford Cardinal leg	Stanford Cardinalavg 50¢	$262.5	$233.63	-$28.88
RN1	UNLV Runnin' Rebelsavg 42¢	$108.9	$202.65	+$93.75	56% 5043-4004 (9047)
VeryLucky888	UNLV Runnin' Rebelsavg 47¢	$96.35	$174.24	+$77.9	53% 1179-1029 (2208)
TH thirdt1me	UNLV Runnin' Rebelsavg 56.8¢	$122.97	$146.25	+$23.28	48% 243-263 (506)
38 38791873984189	UNLV Runnin' Rebelsavg 57.3¢	$185.03	$140.93	-$1.54	48% 2922-3218 (6140)
FL Flaznorp	UNLV Runnin' Rebelsavg 61.1¢	$109.89	$78.38	-$7.43	50% 3526-3585 (7111)
ARTEM-DZYUBAARB<$100	UNLV Runnin' Rebelsavg 47.8¢	$46.6	$59.8	+$13.2	82% 643-144 (787)
└ UNLV Runnin' Rebels leg	UNLV Runnin' Rebelsavg 47.8¢	$38.2	$39.6	+$1.4
└ Stanford Cardinal leg	Stanford Cardinalavg 21¢	$8.4	$20.2	+$11.8
0X 0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186<$100	UNLV Runnin' Rebelsavg 46¢	$9.2	$15.8	+$6.6	49% 516-536 (1052)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Stanford Cardinalavg 48.4¢	$46.53	$14.42	-$2.9	49% 1329-1376 (2705)
AV averagejoetradersCTR<$100	Stanford Cardinalavg 46¢	$16.1	$14.18	-$1.93	56% 748-599 (1347)
OD Oddstorm<$100	UNLV Runnin' Rebelsavg 47¢	$6.58	$11.9	+$5.32	32% 92-194 (286)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	UNLV Runnin' Rebelsavg 50¢	$5.15	$8.14	+$2.99	51% 2364-2297 (4661)
BO BoomLaLa<$100	UNLV Runnin' Rebelsavg 42¢	$4.2	$7.9	+$3.7	34% 144-285 (429)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	UNLV Runnin' Rebelsavg 47¢	$2.35	$4.25	+$1.9	40% 609-910 (1519)
FaroeseNationalistCTR<$100	Stanford Cardinalavg 52¢	$8.32	$3.36	-$4.96	50% 14-14 (28)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Stanford Cardinalavg 58¢	$2.9	$2.2	-$0.7	49% 1865-1975 (3840)
HI hi774cCTR<$100	Stanford Cardinalavg 52¢	$5.22	$2.11	-$3.11	22% 158-576 (734)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100	Stanford Cardinalavg 51¢	$3.12	$1.29	-$1.84	57% 3567-2709 (6276)

imjustkenisghey

UNLV Runnin' Rebels

Invested

$1,269

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$1.0K

Record

44%

26-33 (59)

NotJumpARB<$100

Stanford Cardinal

Invested

$525

Value

$519.26

PnL

+$0.05

Record

53%

750-669 (1419)

Both legs:

UNLV Runnin' Rebels$257.3350¢+$28.93

Stanford Cardinal$262.550¢-$28.88

RN1

UNLV Runnin' Rebels

Invested

$108.9

Value

$202.65

PnL

+$93.75

Record

56%

5043-4004 (9047)

VeryLucky888

UNLV Runnin' Rebels

Invested

$96.35

Value

$174.24

PnL

+$77.9

Record

53%

1179-1029 (2208)

thirdt1me

UNLV Runnin' Rebels

Invested

$122.97

Value

$146.25

PnL

+$23.28

Record

48%

243-263 (506)

38791873984189

UNLV Runnin' Rebels

Invested

$185.03

Value

$140.93

PnL

-$1.54

Record

48%

2922-3218 (6140)

Flaznorp

UNLV Runnin' Rebels

Invested

$109.89

Value

$78.38

PnL

-$7.43

Record

50%

3526-3585 (7111)

ARTEM-DZYUBAARB<$100

UNLV Runnin' Rebels

Invested

$46.6

Value

$59.8

PnL

+$13.2

Record

82%

643-144 (787)

Both legs:

UNLV Runnin' Rebels$38.247.8¢+$1.4

Stanford Cardinal$8.421¢+$11.8

0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186<$100

UNLV Runnin' Rebels

Invested

$9.2

Value

$15.8

PnL

+$6.6

Record

49%

516-536 (1052)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Stanford Cardinal

Invested

$46.53

Value

$14.42

PnL

-$2.9

Record

49%

1329-1376 (2705)

averagejoetradersCTR<$100

Stanford Cardinal

Invested

$16.1

Value

$14.18

PnL

-$1.93

Record

56%

748-599 (1347)

Oddstorm<$100

UNLV Runnin' Rebels

Invested

$6.58

Value

$11.9

PnL

+$5.32

Record

32%

92-194 (286)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

UNLV Runnin' Rebels

Invested

$5.15

Value

$8.14

PnL

+$2.99

Record

51%

2364-2297 (4661)

BoomLaLa<$100

UNLV Runnin' Rebels

Invested

$4.2

Value

$7.9

PnL

+$3.7

Record

34%

144-285 (429)

ameisgoat11<$100

UNLV Runnin' Rebels

Invested

$2.35

Value

$4.25

PnL

+$1.9

Record

40%

609-910 (1519)

FaroeseNationalistCTR<$100

Stanford Cardinal

Invested

$8.32

Value

$3.36

PnL

-$4.96

Record

50%

14-14 (28)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Stanford Cardinal

Invested

$2.9

Value

$2.2

PnL

-$0.7

Record

49%

1865-1975 (3840)

hi774cCTR<$100

Stanford Cardinal

Invested

$5.22

Value

$2.11

PnL

-$3.11

Record

22%

158-576 (734)

HomeRunHazardCTR<$100

Stanford Cardinal

Invested

$3.12

Value

$1.29

PnL

-$1.84

Record

57%

3567-2709 (6276)

Research grade

AvoidUNLV Runnin' Rebels at 62%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

UNLV Runnin' Rebels

11 of 17 top traders (65%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+5 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

72% of non-arb traders are on UNLV Runnin' Rebels. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpUNLV Runnin' Rebels 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUNLV Runnin' Rebels 89% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedUNLV Runnin' Rebels 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000UNLV Runnin' Rebels 71% · 17

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that UNLV Runnin' Rebels wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance63.7%

61.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$57.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

157.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.