Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Warriors, while the market favors Spurs (94%). 7 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Spurs (-15.5)

7 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Warriors (58%) · Warriors at 6.5¢ · $7K held · ended Nov 14

Spurs94¢Warriors6¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Warriors

Consensus Traders

Warriors 58%

Total Value

$7.5K

Combined PnL

$430.88

Smart Money Entry

54.2¢ → 6.5¢

-88% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidWarriors at 7%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Warriors

7 of 12 top traders (58%)Underdog side (market favors Spurs 94%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Spurs94%

Warriors7%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Spurs5 traders

Total Value$6.8K

Total Shares7,337

Combined PnL+$3.5K

Warriors7 traders

Total Value$672.45

Total Shares6,879

Combined PnL$-3.1K

Spurs — 42%Warriors — 58%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

58% of non-arb traders are on Warriors. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrWarriors 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedWarriors 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Warriors 55% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CH ch27er	Spursavg 42¢	$2.5K	$5.6K	+$3.1K	27% 19-52 (71)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Spursavg 62.4¢	$716.06	$725.33	+$264.27	55% 1350-1126 (2476)
RN1	Spursavg 68.2¢	$314.5	$431.04	+$116.54	56% 5073-4021 (9094)
VeryLucky888CTR	Warriorsavg 58¢	$2.3K	$412.71	$-1.9K	53% 1186-1032 (2218)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Warriorsavg 58¢	$956.12	$173.09	-$783.03	57% 3570-2717 (6287)
38 38791873984189	Spursavg 61¢	$137.37	$83.78	+$33.26	48% 2942-3249 (6191)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Warriorsavg 39.1¢	$465.09	$77.35	-$387.75	51% 2368-2313 (4681)
balthazar<$100	Spursavg 42¢	$8.4	$17.9	+$9.5	44% 5036-6461 (11497)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Warriorsavg 16¢	$9.45	$4.13	-$5.32	50% 3544-3611 (7155)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Warriorsavg 58¢	$14.5	$2.63	-$11.88	49% 1349-1396 (2745)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR<$100	Warriorsavg 27¢	$5.4	$2.1	-$3.3	51% 470-452 (922)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Warriorsavg 16¢	$1	$0.44	-$0.56	49% 1883-1987 (3870)

ch27er

Spurs

Invested

$2,500

Value

$5.6K

PnL

+$3.1K

Record

27%

19-52 (71)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Spurs

Invested

$716.06

Value

$725.33

PnL

+$264.27

Record

55%

1350-1126 (2476)

RN1

Spurs

Invested

$314.5

Value

$431.04

PnL

+$116.54

Record

56%

5073-4021 (9094)

VeryLucky888CTR

Warriors

Invested

$2,320

Value

$412.71

PnL

$-1.9K

Record

53%

1186-1032 (2218)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Warriors

Invested

$956.12

Value

$173.09

PnL

-$783.03

Record

57%

3570-2717 (6287)

38791873984189

Spurs

Invested

$137.37

Value

$83.78

PnL

+$33.26

Record

48%

2942-3249 (6191)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Warriors

Invested

$465.09

Value

$77.35

PnL

-$387.75

Record

51%

2368-2313 (4681)

balthazar<$100

Spurs

Invested

$8.4

Value

$17.9

PnL

+$9.5

Record

44%

5036-6461 (11497)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Warriors

Invested

$9.45

Value

$4.13

PnL

-$5.32

Record

50%

3544-3611 (7155)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Warriors

Invested

$14.5

Value

$2.63

PnL

-$11.88

Record

49%

1349-1396 (2745)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR<$100

Warriors

Invested

$5.4

Value

$2.1

PnL

-$3.3

Record

51%

470-452 (922)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Warriors

Invested

Value

$0.44

PnL

-$0.56

Record

49%

1883-1987 (3870)

Research grade

AvoidWarriors at 7%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Warriors

7 of 12 top traders (58%)Underdog side (market favors Spurs 94%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

58% of non-arb traders are on Warriors. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrWarriors 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedWarriors 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Warriors 55% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Warriors wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance7.8%

6.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1174.39

Max Loss

-$100.00

1274.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.