Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (78%). 12 of 15 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Warriors vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5

12 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Over (80%) · Over at 22¢ · $40K held · ended Nov 14

Over22¢Under78¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 80%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$40.5K

Combined PnL

$-3.0K

Smart Money Entry

53.1¢ → 22¢

-59% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 22%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

12 of 15 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Under 78%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over22%

Under78%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$29.5K

Total Shares36,910

Combined PnL+$12.5K

Over12 traders

Total Value$10.1K

Total Shares47,715

Combined PnL$-15.5K

Under — 20%Over — 80%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 70%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (14 on Over) disagree here.

whaleOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 67% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 86% · 14

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TM TMingchan	Underavg 47¢	$9.4K	$16.0K	+$6.6K	28% 16-41 (57)
TI tian888	Underavg 44.8¢	$7.6K	$13.5K	+$5.9K	— 10-6 (16)
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR	Overavg 53¢	$11.2K	$4.3K	$-6.9K	49% 615-643 (1258)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Overavg 53¢	$7.0K	$2.6K	$-4.3K	57% 3570-2717 (6287)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Overavg 55.5¢	$5.6K	$2.4K	$-3.3K	50% 3544-3611 (7155)
RN1ARB<$100	Overavg 55.1¢	$1.4K	$886.41	-$504.76	56% 5073-4021 (9094)
└ Under leg	Underavg 55.4¢	$363.97	$522.3	+$158.33
└ Over leg	Overavg 55.1¢	$977.84	$364.12	-$663.08
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Overavg 41.8¢	$654.95	$313.24	-$341.71	55% 1350-1126 (2476)
AN Anon455CTR	Overavg 48.8¢	$446.19	$182.71	-$263.48	50% 368-373 (741)
FE ferdinand2CTR	Overavg 55.6¢	$313.79	$106.1	-$189.69	49% 1883-1987 (3870)
38 38791873984189CTR	Overavg 52.6¢	$272.52	$84	-$130.72	48% 2942-3249 (6191)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Overavg 54¢	$84.04	$31.9	-$52.14	46% 2359-2814 (5173)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Overavg 51.9¢	$37.73	$14.54	-$23.2	37% 841-1416 (2257)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR<$100	Overavg 49¢	$19.22	$7.84	-$11.37	51% 470-452 (922)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100	Overavg 55¢	$17.05	$6.35	-$10.7	55% 250-204 (454)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Overavg 47¢	$5.71	$5.39	-$0.32	51% 2368-2313 (4681)
VeryLucky888	Underavg 44¢	$169.52	$4	+$1.8	53% 1186-1032 (2218)

TMingchan

Under

Invested

$9,399.98

Value

$16.0K

PnL

+$6.6K

Record

28%

16-41 (57)

tian888

Under

Invested

$7,577.56

Value

$13.5K

PnL

+$5.9K

Record

—

10-6 (16)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR

Over

Invested

$11,240.99

Value

$4.3K

PnL

$-6.9K

Record

49%

615-643 (1258)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Over

Invested

$6,950

Value

$2.6K

PnL

$-4.3K

Record

57%

3570-2717 (6287)

FlaznorpCTR

Over

Invested

$5,623.76

Value

$2.4K

PnL

$-3.3K

Record

50%

3544-3611 (7155)

RN1ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$1,426.59

Value

$886.41

PnL

-$504.76

Record

56%

5073-4021 (9094)

Both legs:

Under$363.9755.4¢+$158.33

Over$977.8455.1¢-$663.08

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Over

Invested

$654.95

Value

$313.24

PnL

-$341.71

Record

55%

1350-1126 (2476)

Anon455CTR

Over

Invested

$446.19

Value

$182.71

PnL

-$263.48

Record

50%

368-373 (741)

ferdinand2CTR

Over

Invested

$313.79

Value

$106.1

PnL

-$189.69

Record

49%

1883-1987 (3870)

38791873984189CTR

Over

Invested

$272.52

Value

$84

PnL

-$130.72

Record

48%

2942-3249 (6191)

suntoriCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$84.04

Value

$31.9

PnL

-$52.14

Record

46%

2359-2814 (5173)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$37.73

Value

$14.54

PnL

-$23.2

Record

37%

841-1416 (2257)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$19.22

Value

$7.84

PnL

-$11.37

Record

51%

470-452 (922)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$17.05

Value

$6.35

PnL

-$10.7

Record

55%

250-204 (454)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$5.71

Value

$5.39

PnL

-$0.32

Record

51%

2368-2313 (4681)

VeryLucky888

Under

Invested

$169.52

Value

PnL

+$1.8

Record

53%

1186-1032 (2218)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 22%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Over

12 of 15 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Under 78%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 70%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (14 on Over) disagree here.

whaleOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 67% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 86% · 14

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance23.9%

22.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$318.66

Max Loss

-$100.00

418.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.