Spread: Spurs (-13.5)
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Warriors (50%) · Warriors at 55¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 14
⚠️
Avoid
Warriors
6
Warriors 50%
2 arb excluded
$1.2K
$22.98
52.8¢ → 54.5¢
+3% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidWarriors at 55%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
12h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
33% of non-arb traders are on Warriors. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Warriorsavg 52.7¢ | $643.93 | $684.11 | +$40.17 | 57% 3561-2704 (6265) |
QW QWUERHAIUKSJNFSNCFCTR | Spursavg 49¢ | $150.85 | $132.38 | -$18.47 | 38% 17-28 (45) |
NM NM-PARB<$100 | Spursavg 43¢ | $127.33 | $127.33 | +$0 | 59% 3648-2489 (6137) |
| └ Spurs leg | Spursavg 43¢ | $75.25 | $75.25 | +$0 | |
| └ Warriors leg | Warriorsavg 56¢ | $52.08 | $52.08 | +$0 | |
38 38791873984189ARB<$100 | Warriorsavg 55¢ | $115.18 | $110.79 | -$2.14 | 48% 2787-3042 (5829) |
| └ Warriors leg | Warriorsavg 55¢ | $62.15 | $62.72 | +$0.57 | |
| └ Spurs leg | Spursavg 46.9¢ | $50.68 | $48.08 | -$2.7 | |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Spursavg 45¢ | $64.36 | $65.08 | +$0.72 | 35% 750-1386 (2136) |
SU suntori<$100 | Warriorsavg 54¢ | $47.61 | $49.37 | +$1.76 | 46% 2104-2463 (4567) |
 0xheavy888<$100 | Warriorsavg 55¢ | $20.19 | $19.99 | -$0.2 | 53% 390-340 (730) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Spursavg 47¢ | $11.75 | $10.75 | -$1 | 49% 1307-1356 (2663) |
Invested
$643.93
Value
$684.11
PnL
+$40.17
Record
57%
3561-2704 (6265)
Invested
$150.85
Value
$132.38
PnL
-$18.47
Record
38%
17-28 (45)
Invested
$127.33
Value
$127.33
PnL
+$0
Record
59%
3648-2489 (6137)
Both legs:
Invested
$115.18
Value
$110.79
PnL
-$2.14
Record
48%
2787-3042 (5829)
Both legs:
Invested
$64.36
Value
$65.08
PnL
+$0.72
Record
35%
750-1386 (2136)
Invested
$47.61
Value
$49.37
PnL
+$1.76
Record
46%
2104-2463 (4567)
0xheavy888<$100Invested
$20.19
Value
$19.99
PnL
-$0.2
Record
53%
390-340 (730)
Invested
$11.75
Value
$10.75
PnL
-$1
Record
49%
1307-1356 (2663)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.