Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Rockets, while the market favors Jazz (56%). 6 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Rockets (-17.5)

6 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Rockets (46%) · Rockets at 44¢ · $11K held · ends Nov 14

Rockets44¢Jazz56¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Rockets

Consensus Traders

Rockets 46%

Total Value

$11.1K

Combined PnL

-$77.64

Smart Money Entry

46.8¢ → 43.5¢

-7% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidRockets at 44%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Rockets

6 of 13 top traders (46%)Underdog side (market favors Jazz 56%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Rockets44%

Jazz56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Jazz7 traders

Total Value$5.6K

Total Shares10,098

Combined PnL+$175.76

Rockets6 traders

Total Value$5.6K

Total Shares12,399

Combined PnL-$253.4

Jazz — 54%Rockets — 46%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

46% of non-arb traders are on Rockets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrRockets 57% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Jazz 54% · 13

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Jazzavg 53.3¢	$4.8K	$5.0K	+$158.8	57% 3561-2704 (6265)
HG hgawxCTR	Rocketsavg 47¢	$3.5K	$3.4K	-$167.66	6% 3-49 (52)
AY ay118CTR	Rocketsavg 45¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$5.64	24% 28-91 (119)
73 739633786CTR	Rocketsavg 48¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$76.41	8% 17-199 (216)
OM omnibus-076daa	Jazzavg 55¢	$323.26	$323.26	+$0	44% 391-495 (886)
38 38791873984189	Jazzavg 52¢	$148.2	$107.35	+$13.3	48% 2786-3040 (5826)
SE sentrio<$100	Jazzavg 55¢	$66.21	$66.46	+$0.25	43% 808-1065 (1873)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Rocketsavg 48¢	$48.07	$44.83	-$3.24	50% 3193-3131 (6324)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Jazzavg 53¢	$38.69	$40.15	+$1.46	49% 1668-1706 (3374)
PA Pan9X<$100	Jazzavg 52¢	$36.4	$33.55	+$1.92	49% 1306-1355 (2661)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Rocketsavg 44.8¢	$9.52	$9.25	-$0.27	46% 2084-2445 (4529)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Rocketsavg 46¢	$6.76	$6.58	-$0.18	34% 735-1404 (2139)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Jazzavg 56¢	$2.8	$2.82	+$0.02	40% 584-893 (1477)

HomeRunHazard

Jazz

Invested

$4,838.7

Value

$5.0K

PnL

+$158.8

Record

57%

3561-2704 (6265)

hgawxCTR

Rockets

Invested

$3,525.56

Value

$3.4K

PnL

-$167.66

Record

3-49 (52)

ay118CTR

Rockets

Invested

$1,080

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$5.64

Record

24%

28-91 (119)

739633786CTR

Rockets

Invested

$1,133.72

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$76.41

Record

17-199 (216)

omnibus-076daa

Jazz

Invested

$323.26

Value

$323.26

PnL

+$0

Record

44%

391-495 (886)

38791873984189

Jazz

Invested

$148.2

Value

$107.35

PnL

+$13.3

Record

48%

2786-3040 (5826)

sentrio<$100

Jazz

Invested

$66.21

Value

$66.46

PnL

+$0.25

Record

43%

808-1065 (1873)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Rockets

Invested

$48.07

Value

$44.83

PnL

-$3.24

Record

50%

3193-3131 (6324)

ferdinand2<$100

Jazz

Invested

$38.69

Value

$40.15

PnL

+$1.46

Record

49%

1668-1706 (3374)

Pan9X<$100

Jazz

Invested

$36.4

Value

$33.55

PnL

+$1.92

Record

49%

1306-1355 (2661)

suntoriCTR<$100

Rockets

Invested

$9.52

Value

$9.25

PnL

-$0.27

Record

46%

2084-2445 (4529)

VenusianCTR<$100

Rockets

Invested

$6.76

Value

$6.58

PnL

-$0.18

Record

34%

735-1404 (2139)

ameisgoat11<$100

Jazz

Invested

$2.8

Value

$2.82

PnL

+$0.02

Record

40%

584-893 (1477)

Research grade

AvoidRockets at 44%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Rockets

6 of 13 top traders (46%)Underdog side (market favors Jazz 56%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

46% of non-arb traders are on Rockets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrRockets 57% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Jazz 54% · 13

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Rockets wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance45.7%

43.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$118.65

Max Loss

-$100.00

218.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.