Spread: UCLA (-7.5)

9 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold UCLA (69%) · UCLA at 63¢ · $13K held · ended Nov 14

UCLA63¢Illinois37¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

UCLA

Consensus Traders

UCLA 69%

Total Value

$13.4K

Combined PnL

$21.52

Smart Money Entry

62.5¢ → 62.5¢

+0% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralUCLA at 63%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

UCLA

9 of 13 top traders (69%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

UCLA63%

Illinois38%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Illinois4 traders

Total Value$4.8K

Total Shares12,798

Combined PnL+$69.73

UCLA9 traders

Total Value$8.6K

Total Shares13,871

Combined PnL-$48.21

Illinois — 31%UCLA — 69%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

69% of non-arb traders are on UCLA. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrIllinois 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedUCLA 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000UCLA 69% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PR primmCTR	Illinoisavg 36.8¢	$3.6K	$3.7K	+$69.21	59% 899-622 (1521)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	UCLAavg 62.8¢	$3.6K	$3.6K	-$18.01	51% 2368-2313 (4681)
RN1	UCLAavg 63.1¢	$2.7K	$2.6K	-$48.69	56% 5073-4021 (9094)
JU justaluckydudeCTR	Illinoisavg 37.6¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	-$2.24	44% 422-532 (954)
65 6512395314597884	UCLAavg 63.8¢	$874.34	$856.82	-$17.52	50% 3689-3644 (7333)
HO HomeRunHazard	UCLAavg 56¢	$560	$620	+$60	57% 3570-2717 (6287)
38 38791873984189	UCLAavg 63.2¢	$839.38	$602.3	-$23.59	48% 2942-3249 (6191)
PA Pan9X	UCLAavg 62.5¢	$228.67	$188.49	+$0.92	49% 1349-1396 (2745)
NO NotJump<$100	UCLAavg 63.5¢	$63.5	$62	-$1.5	53% 750-672 (1422)
AM AmericaFirst1CTR<$100	Illinoisavg 37.9¢	$56.71	$56.16	-$0.55	47% 72-82 (154)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Illinoisavg 34¢	$28.12	$31.42	+$3.31	37% 841-1416 (2257)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100	UCLAavg 64¢	$27.56	$26.69	-$0.86	55% 1350-1126 (2476)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100	UCLAavg 58¢	$15.08	$16.12	+$1.04	55% 250-204 (454)

primmCTR

Illinois

Invested

$3,622.95

Value

$3.7K

PnL

+$69.21

Record

59%

899-622 (1521)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

UCLA

Invested

$3,648.51

Value

$3.6K

PnL

-$18.01

Record

51%

2368-2313 (4681)

RN1

UCLA

Invested

$2,683.43

Value

$2.6K

PnL

-$48.69

Record

56%

5073-4021 (9094)

justaluckydudeCTR

Illinois

Invested

$1,022.01

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$2.24

Record

44%

422-532 (954)

6512395314597884

UCLA

Invested

$874.34

Value

$856.82

PnL

-$17.52

Record

50%

3689-3644 (7333)

HomeRunHazard

UCLA

Invested

$560

Value

$620

PnL

+$60

Record

57%

3570-2717 (6287)

38791873984189

UCLA

Invested

$839.38

Value

$602.3

PnL

-$23.59

Record

48%

2942-3249 (6191)

Pan9X

UCLA

Invested

$228.67

Value

$188.49

PnL

+$0.92

Record

49%

1349-1396 (2745)

NotJump<$100

UCLA

Invested

$63.5

Value

$62

PnL

-$1.5

Record

53%

750-672 (1422)

AmericaFirst1CTR<$100

Illinois

Invested

$56.71

Value

$56.16

PnL

-$0.55

Record

47%

72-82 (154)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Illinois

Invested

$28.12

Value

$31.42

PnL

+$3.31

Record

37%

841-1416 (2257)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100

UCLA

Invested

$27.56

Value

$26.69

PnL

-$0.86

Record

55%

1350-1126 (2476)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100

UCLA

Invested

$15.08

Value

$16.12

PnL

+$1.04

Record

55%

250-204 (454)

Research grade

NeutralUCLA at 63%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

UCLA

9 of 13 top traders (69%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

69% of non-arb traders are on UCLA. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrIllinois 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedUCLA 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000UCLA 69% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that UCLA wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance64.7%

62.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$54.66

Max Loss

-$100.00

154.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.