UIC Flames vs. Saint Mary's Gaels

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Saint Mary's Gaels (67%) · Saint Mary's Gaels at 98¢ · $675 held · ended Nov 14

UIC Flames2¢Saint Mary's Gaels98¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Saint Mary's Gaels

Consensus Traders

Saint Mary's Gaels 67%

Total Value

$674.64

Combined PnL

$21.29

Smart Money Entry

83.9¢ → 98¢

+17% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidSaint Mary's Gaels at 98%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Saint Mary's Gaels

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

UIC Flames2%

Saint Mary's Gaels98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Saint Mary's Gaels6 traders

Total Value$666.34

Total Shares670

Combined PnL+$23.21

UIC Flames3 traders

Total Value$8.3

Total Shares79

Combined PnL-$1.92

Saint Mary's Gaels — 67%UIC Flames — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Saint Mary's Gaels. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on UIC Flames) and the top 1000 (8 on Saint Mary's Gaels) disagree here.

ctrSaint Mary's Gaels 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedUIC Flames 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Saint Mary's Gaels 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Saint Mary's Gaelsavg 77.5¢	$277.93	$328.43	+$50.51	50% 3544-3611 (7155)
RN1	Saint Mary's Gaelsavg 95¢	$284.86	$245.82	-$39.04	56% 5073-4021 (9094)
TH thirdt1me<$100	Saint Mary's Gaelsavg 76.8¢	$55.19	$63.48	+$8.3	48% 243-264 (507)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Saint Mary's Gaelsavg 75.1¢	$14.21	$11.04	+$1.83	49% 1883-1987 (3870)
SM smithagent<$100	Saint Mary's Gaelsavg 86¢	$9.46	$10.12	+$0.66	44% 600-749 (1349)
38 38791873984189<$100	Saint Mary's Gaelsavg 83¢	$6.49	$7.45	+$0.95	48% 2942-3249 (6191)
0X 0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR<$100	UIC Flamesavg 4¢	$2	$4	+$2	9% 41-414 (455)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100	UIC Flamesavg 28¢	$3.36	$2.53	-$0.83	57% 3570-2717 (6287)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	UIC Flamesavg 22¢	$4.85	$1.76	-$3.09	51% 2368-2313 (4681)

Flaznorp

Saint Mary's Gaels

Invested

$277.93

Value

$328.43

PnL

+$50.51

Record

50%

3544-3611 (7155)

RN1

Saint Mary's Gaels

Invested

$284.86

Value

$245.82

PnL

-$39.04

Record

56%

5073-4021 (9094)

thirdt1me<$100

Saint Mary's Gaels

Invested

$55.19

Value

$63.48

PnL

+$8.3

Record

48%

243-264 (507)

ferdinand2<$100

Saint Mary's Gaels

Invested

$14.21

Value

$11.04

PnL

+$1.83

Record

49%

1883-1987 (3870)

smithagent<$100

Saint Mary's Gaels

Invested

$9.46

Value

$10.12

PnL

+$0.66

Record

44%

600-749 (1349)

38791873984189<$100

Saint Mary's Gaels

Invested

$6.49

Value

$7.45

PnL

+$0.95

Record

48%

2942-3249 (6191)

0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR<$100

UIC Flames

Invested

Value

PnL

+$2

Record

41-414 (455)

HomeRunHazardCTR<$100

UIC Flames

Invested

$3.36

Value

$2.53

PnL

-$0.83

Record

57%

3570-2717 (6287)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

UIC Flames

Invested

$4.85

Value

$1.76

PnL

-$3.09

Record

51%

2368-2313 (4681)

Research grade

AvoidSaint Mary's Gaels at 98%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Saint Mary's Gaels

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Saint Mary's Gaels. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on UIC Flames) and the top 1000 (8 on Saint Mary's Gaels) disagree here.

ctrSaint Mary's Gaels 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedUIC Flames 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Saint Mary's Gaels 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Saint Mary's Gaels wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.0%

98.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.96

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.