Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Trail Blazers, while the market favors Kings (57%). 9 of 15 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Trail Blazers (-12.5)

9 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Trail Blazers (60%) · Trail Blazers at 43¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 14

Trail Blazers43¢Kings57¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Trail Blazers

Consensus Traders

Trail Blazers 60%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.8K

Combined PnL

-$139.95

Smart Money Entry

52.9¢ → 42.5¢

-20% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidTrail Blazers at 43%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Trail Blazers

9 of 15 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Kings 57%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Trail Blazers43%

Kings57%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Trail Blazers9 traders

Total Value$3.4K

Total Shares6,803

Combined PnL-$181.9

Kings6 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares2,051

Combined PnL+$41.94

Trail Blazers — 60%Kings — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR	Trail Blazersavg 54¢	$3.0K	$2.8K	-$192.27	51% 3833-3624 (7457)
FL Flaznorp	Kingsavg 48.9¢	$547.2	$554.06	+$6.86	50% 3544-3611 (7155)
RN1	Kingsavg 50.5¢	$315.5	$358.74	+$45.4	56% 5073-4021 (9094)
JU justaluckydudeCTR	Trail Blazersavg 50.1¢	$182.24	$183.64	+$1.4	44% 422-532 (954)
TA takeormakeCTR	Trail Blazersavg 47.3¢	$157.3	$156.5	+$3.52	58% 3436-2532 (5968)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Kingsavg 52.7¢	$151.51	$152.55	+$1.04	56% 4019-3135 (7154)
└ Kings leg	Kingsavg 52.7¢	$80.63	$78.74	-$1.89
└ Trail Blazers leg	Trail Blazersavg 46.6¢	$70.88	$73.81	+$2.93
65 6512395314597884CTR	Trail Blazersavg 45¢	$119.25	$128.53	+$9.28	50% 3689-3644 (7333)
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Kingsavg 58¢	$111.94	$105.71	-$6.23	50% 368-373 (741)
└ Kings leg	Kingsavg 58¢	$75.95	$64.17	-$11.79
└ Trail Blazers leg	Trail Blazersavg 44.2¢	$35.98	$41.54	+$5.56
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Trail Blazersavg 52¢	$105.64	$102.59	-$3.05	55% 1350-1126 (2476)
CA CandleHammerDrums<$100	Kingsavg 54.8¢	$99.78	$93.73	-$6.05	48% 465-495 (960)
MI micky456CTR<$100	Trail Blazersavg 51.6¢	$72.47	$47.75	-$4.73	47% 489-544 (1033)
HO HomeRunHazard<$100	Kingsavg 55¢	$48.95	$43.61	-$5.34	57% 3570-2717 (6287)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Trail Blazersavg 41¢	$13.9	$16.95	+$3.05	48% 2942-3249 (6191)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Kingsavg 52¢	$15.06	$15.85	+$0.79	51% 2368-2313 (4681)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Trail Blazersavg 49¢	$14.7	$15.3	+$0.6	49% 1349-1396 (2745)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Kingsavg 42¢	$8.17	$8.46	+$0.29	37% 841-1416 (2257)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Trail Blazersavg 44¢	$2.2	$2.5	+$0.3	40% 614-914 (1528)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR

Trail Blazers

Invested

$2,966.38

Value

$2.8K

PnL

-$192.27

Record

51%

3833-3624 (7457)

Flaznorp

Kings

Invested

$547.2

Value

$554.06

PnL

+$6.86

Record

50%

3544-3611 (7155)

RN1

Kings

Invested

$315.5

Value

$358.74

PnL

+$45.4

Record

56%

5073-4021 (9094)

justaluckydudeCTR

Trail Blazers

Invested

$182.24

Value

$183.64

PnL

+$1.4

Record

44%

422-532 (954)

takeormakeCTR

Trail Blazers

Invested

$157.3

Value

$156.5

PnL

+$3.52

Record

58%

3436-2532 (5968)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Kings

Invested

$151.51

Value

$152.55

PnL

+$1.04

Record

56%

4019-3135 (7154)

Both legs:

Kings$80.6352.7¢-$1.89

Trail Blazers$70.8846.6¢+$2.93

6512395314597884CTR

Trail Blazers

Invested

$119.25

Value

$128.53

PnL

+$9.28

Record

50%

3689-3644 (7333)

Anon455ARB<$100

Kings

Invested

$111.94

Value

$105.71

PnL

-$6.23

Record

50%

368-373 (741)

Both legs:

Kings$75.9558¢-$11.79

Trail Blazers$35.9844.2¢+$5.56

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Trail Blazers

Invested

$105.64

Value

$102.59

PnL

-$3.05

Record

55%

1350-1126 (2476)

CandleHammerDrums<$100

Kings

Invested

$99.78

Value

$93.73

PnL

-$6.05

Record

48%

465-495 (960)

micky456CTR<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$72.47

Value

$47.75

PnL

-$4.73

Record

47%

489-544 (1033)

HomeRunHazard<$100

Kings

Invested

$48.95

Value

$43.61

PnL

-$5.34

Record

57%

3570-2717 (6287)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$13.9

Value

$16.95

PnL

+$3.05

Record

48%

2942-3249 (6191)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Kings

Invested

$15.06

Value

$15.85

PnL

+$0.79

Record

51%

2368-2313 (4681)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$14.7

Value

$15.3

PnL

+$0.6

Record

49%

1349-1396 (2745)

topdogbigboi<$100

Kings

Invested

$8.17

Value

$8.46

PnL

+$0.29

Record

37%

841-1416 (2257)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$2.2

Value

$2.5

PnL

+$0.3

Record

40%

614-914 (1528)

Research grade

AvoidTrail Blazers at 43%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Trail Blazers

9 of 15 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Kings 57%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Trail Blazers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance44.7%

42.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$123.57

Max Loss

-$100.00

223.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.