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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| Bignum | HomeRunHazard | keeptheblueflagflyinghigh | nigiri99 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 33% (9–18, n=27) | 52% (590–548, n=1138) | 47% (671–742, n=1413) | 53% (529–468, n=997) |
| Consensus PnL | -$4.6K | $400K | $890K | $639K |
| Tracked as | was PM monthly #953 | PM monthly #10 | PM monthly #14 | PM monthly #52 |
| Sides with the consensus | 100% (1 of 1 open) | 67% (67 of 100 open) | 63% (46 of 73 open) | 59% (26 of 44 open) |
| Strongest topics |
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| Weakest topic | — | — | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 67% of 15 at avg 34¢, ROI +15% | 100% of 317 at avg 53¢, ROI +48% | 100% of 467 at avg 52¢, ROI +45% | 77% of 769 at avg 54¢, ROI +11% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 40% (won 50% of 6) | 2% (won 100% of 6) | 5% (won 100% of 23) | 12% (won 44% of 90) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 40% (won 67% of 6) | 32% (won 100% of 100) | 34% (won 100% of 159) | 25% (won 71% of 190) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 13% (won 100% of 2) | 60% (won 100% of 189) | 52% (won 100% of 243) | 45% (won 80% of 347) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 7% (won 100% of 1) | 7% (won 100% of 22) | 9% (won 100% of 42) | 18% (won 99% of 142) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
20 on the same side, 17 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | Bignum | HomeRunHazard | keeptheblueflagflyinghigh | nigiri99 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pepperdine Waves vs. Oregon Ducks opposite sides · consensus Oregon Ducks | — | Oregon Ducks $7.2K | Oregon Ducks $19K | Pepperdine Waves $156K |
| Spread: Packers (-2.5) opposite sides · consensus Packers | — | Vikings $7.9K | Vikings $14K | Packers $2.4K |
| Rams vs. Cardinals opposite sides · consensus Rams | — | Rams $5.4K | Rams $4.8K | Cardinals $199 |
| Spread: Lions (-3.5) opposite sides · consensus Patriots | — | Lions $32 | Patriots $413 | Patriots $194 |
| Spread: Texans (-3.5) same side · consensus Browns | — | Browns $2.5K | Browns $19K | Browns $1.2K |
| Jaguars vs. Titans opposite sides · consensus Jaguars | — | Jaguars $24K | Titans $12K | — |
| Panthers vs. Saints opposite sides · consensus Panthers | — | Saints $26K | — | Panthers $238 |
| Vikings vs. Packers opposite sides · consensus Packers | — | Vikings $6.7K | Packers $15K | — |
| Patriots vs. Lions: O/U 50.5 opposite sides · consensus Over | — | — | Over $18K | Under $1.3K |
| Spread: Texans (-4.5) opposite sides · consensus Browns | — | Browns $3.2K | — | Texans $8.1K |
| Hawks vs. Bucks: O/U 233.5 opposite sides · consensus Over | — | Under $2.9K | Over $7.6K | — |
| Pacers vs. 76ers: O/U 226.5 opposite sides · consensus Under | — | Under $1.6K | Over $6.2K | — |
| Spread: Bills (-8.5) opposite sides · consensus Jets | — | Bills $6.3K | Jets $212 | — |
| Spread: Packers (-5.5) opposite sides · consensus Vikings | — | Vikings $6.0K | — | Packers $6 |
| Dolphins vs. Colts: O/U 38.5 opposite sides · consensus Under | — | Over $4.4K | — | Under $1.1K |
| Spread: Spurs (-16.5) opposite sides · consensus Jazz | — | Spurs $182 | Jazz $4.9K | — |
| Hornets vs. Clippers: O/U 214.5 opposite sides · consensus Over | — | Over $1.8K | Under $1.7K | — |
| Spread: 76ers (-6.5) opposite sides · consensus Pacers | — | 76ers $19 | Pacers $120 | — |
| Patriots vs. Lions same side · consensus Lions | — | Patriots $11K | Patriots $29K | — |
| Seahawks vs. Raiders same side · consensus Seahawks | — | Seahawks $20K | Seahawks $19K | — |
| Bills vs. Jets same side · consensus Bills | — | — | Bills $33K | Bills $3.5K |
| Vikings vs. Packers: O/U 42.5 same side · consensus Under | — | Under $2.4K | Under $22K | — |
| Spread: Lions (-2.5) same side · consensus Lions | — | Patriots $7.0K | — | Patriots $6.9K |
| Patriots vs. Lions: O/U 48.5 same side · consensus Under | — | Under $10 | Under $12K | — |
| Jaguars vs. Titans: O/U 46.5 same side · consensus Under | — | Under $432 | Under $11K | — |
| Spread: Celtics (-13.5) same side · consensus Mavericks | — | Mavericks $5.8K | Mavericks $555 | — |
| Spread: 49ers (-4.5) same side · consensus Cowboys | — | Cowboys $2.3K | Cowboys $3.3K | — |
| Spread: Lakers (-3.5) same side · consensus Suns | — | Suns $4.5K | Suns $793 | — |
| Spread: Saints (-2.5) same side · consensus Panthers | — | — | Panthers $3.8K | Panthers $887 |
| Spread: Nebraska Cornhuskers (-9.5) same side · consensus Nebraska Cornhuskers | — | Nebraska Cornhuskers $1.7K | Nebraska Cornhuskers $1.2K | — |
| Texans vs. Browns: O/U 40.5 same side · consensus Over | — | — | Over $2.2K | Over $446 |
| Spread: Jaguars (-10.5) same side · consensus Titans | — | Jaguars $1.1K | — | Jaguars $1.3K |
| Dolphins vs. Colts same side · consensus Colts | — | Colts $2.0K | — | Colts $3 |
| Bills vs. Jets: O/U 48.5 same side · consensus Under | — | Under $1.4K | — | Under $489 |
| Patriots vs. Lions: O/U 52.5 same side · consensus Under | — | Under $140 | Under $1.2K | — |
| Orleans: Otto Virtanen vs Nishesh Basavareddy same side · consensus Otto Virtanen | — | — | Otto Virtanen $904 | Otto Virtanen $1 |
| Rockets vs. Wizards same side · consensus Rockets | — | Rockets $321 | — | Rockets $72 |