Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Vikings, while the market favors Packers (65%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Vikings vs. Packers
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Vikings (67%) · Vikings at 36¢ · $573 held · ends Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
Vikings
6
Vikings 67%
$573.38
-$21.8
37¢ → 35.5¢
-4% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralVikings at 36%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Packers 65%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+17 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 92%
Freshness
Fresh
6h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Vikings. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
38 38791873984189CTR | Vikingsavg 36.2¢ | $214.02 | $269.51 | -$9.8 | 48% 603-645 (1248) |
OD OddstormCTR | Vikingsavg 38.4¢ | $164.95 | $154.5 | -$10.45 | 7% 7-88 (95) |
 RollAwayTheDew<$100 | Packersavg 62¢ | $69.48 | $69.48 | -$0.56 | 3% 7-220 (227) |
PU purplegatto<$100 | Packersavg 63¢ | $42.21 | $41.54 | -$0.67 | 69% 2536-1149 (3685) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Vikingsavg 36.7¢ | $21.38 | $21.64 | -$0.07 | 47% 329-371 (700) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Vikingsavg 37¢ | $20.93 | $16.71 | -$0.25 | 51% 197-186 (383) |
Invested
$214.02
Value
$269.51
PnL
-$9.8
Record
48%
603-645 (1248)
Invested
$164.95
Value
$154.5
PnL
-$10.45
Record
7%
7-88 (95)
RollAwayTheDew<$100Invested
$69.48
Value
$69.48
PnL
-$0.56
Record
3%
7-220 (227)
Invested
$42.21
Value
$41.54
PnL
-$0.67
Record
69%
2536-1149 (3685)
Invested
$21.38
Value
$21.64
PnL
-$0.07
Record
47%
329-371 (700)
Invested
$20.93
Value
$16.71
PnL
-$0.25
Record
51%
197-186 (383)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
35.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.