Pacers vs. 76ers: O/U 226.5
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (67%) · Under at 53¢ · $15K held · ends Nov 15
⚠️
Avoid
Under
6
Under 67%
$14.6K
-$37.34
52.4¢ → 52.5¢
+0% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 53%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MU Multicoloured-Serf | Underavg 52¢ | $6.7K | $7.3K | +$518.15 | 48% 720-766 (1486) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR | Overavg 48¢ | $6.3K | $5.8K | -$525.16 | 50% 2840-2873 (5713) |
HO HomeRunHazard | Underavg 54¢ | $1.6K | $1.6K | -$29.8 | 56% 3922-3103 (7025) |
SU suntori<$100 | Underavg 55.3¢ | $12.68 | $12.15 | -$0.53 | 46% 3227-3762 (6989) |
NM NM-PCTR<$100 | Overavg 44¢ | $7.72 | $7.72 | +$0 | 59% 3949-2729 (6678) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Underavg 53¢ | $2.65 | $2.65 | +$0 | 43% 852-1137 (1989) |
Invested
$6,736
Value
$7.3K
PnL
+$518.15
Record
48%
720-766 (1486)
Invested
$6,301.97
Value
$5.8K
PnL
-$525.16
Record
50%
2840-2873 (5713)
Invested
$1,603.19
Value
$1.6K
PnL
-$29.8
Record
56%
3922-3103 (7025)
Invested
$12.68
Value
$12.15
PnL
-$0.53
Record
46%
3227-3762 (6989)
Invested
$7.72
Value
$7.72
PnL
+$0
Record
59%
3949-2729 (6678)
Invested
$2.65
Value
$2.65
PnL
+$0
Record
43%
852-1137 (1989)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.