Seahawks vs. Raiders
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Seahawks (60%) · Seahawks at 63¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
Seahawks
5
Seahawks 60%
1 arb excluded
$2.3K
$23.18
62¢ → 62.5¢
+1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralSeahawks at 63%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-7 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Mature
13h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Seahawks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BA Bayupati | Seahawksavg 62¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$8.88 | 4% 5-120 (125) |
OD OddstormARB<$100 | Raidersavg 38¢ | $665.1 | $655.86 | -$6.97 | 7% 7-88 (95) |
| └ Raiders leg | Raidersavg 38¢ | $380 | $375 | -$5 | |
| └ Seahawks leg | Seahawksavg 62.9¢ | $285.1 | $280.86 | -$1.97 | |
38 38791873984189 | Seahawksavg 62¢ | $15.57 | $492.94 | +$14.45 | 48% 603-645 (1248) |
PU purplegattoCTR<$100 | Raidersavg 38¢ | $52.06 | $51.38 | -$0.68 | 69% 2536-1149 (3685) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Seahawks | $23.1 | $23.1 | +$0.49 | 47% 329-371 (700) |
BO BoomLaLaCTR<$100 | Raidersavg 35¢ | $0.54 | $0.58 | +$0.04 | 12% 22-166 (188) |
Invested
$1,101.41
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$8.88
Record
4%
5-120 (125)
Invested
$665.1
Value
$655.86
PnL
-$6.97
Record
7%
7-88 (95)
Both legs:
Invested
$15.57
Value
$492.94
PnL
+$14.45
Record
48%
603-645 (1248)
Invested
$52.06
Value
$51.38
PnL
-$0.68
Record
69%
2536-1149 (3685)
Invested
$23.1
Value
$23.1
PnL
+$0.49
Record
47%
329-371 (700)
Invested
$0.54
Value
$0.58
PnL
+$0.04
Record
12%
22-166 (188)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
62.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.