Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Lions, while the market favors Patriots (57%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Lions (-3.5)
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Lions (67%) · Lions at 43¢ · $812 held · ends Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
Lions
6
Lions 67%
$811.86
$10.19
43¢ → 42.5¢
-1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralLions at 43%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Patriots 57%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888CTR | Lionsavg 43¢ | $687.57 | $586.81 | +$9.24 | 53% 1770-1556 (3326) |
 rafaleaooCTR | Lionsavg 43¢ | $108.83 | $110.1 | +$1.27 | 5% 37-657 (694) |
 nigiri99<$100 | Patriotsavg 58¢ | $59.16 | $58.65 | -$0.51 | 50% 690-699 (1389) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100 | Lionsavg 43¢ | $32.44 | $32.52 | +$0.08 | 56% 3861-3029 (6890) |
OD Oddstorm<$100 | Patriotsavg 57¢ | $16.52 | $16.38 | -$0.14 | 35% 131-241 (372) |
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100 | Lionsavg 42¢ | $7.14 | $7.4 | +$0.25 | 48% 435-473 (908) |
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$687.57
Value
$586.81
PnL
+$9.24
Record
53%
1770-1556 (3326)
rafaleaooCTRInvested
$108.83
Value
$110.1
PnL
+$1.27
Record
5%
37-657 (694)
nigiri99<$100Invested
$59.16
Value
$58.65
PnL
-$0.51
Record
50%
690-699 (1389)
Invested
$32.44
Value
$32.52
PnL
+$0.08
Record
56%
3861-3029 (6890)
Invested
$16.52
Value
$16.38
PnL
-$0.14
Record
35%
131-241 (372)
Invested
$7.14
Value
$7.4
PnL
+$0.25
Record
48%
435-473 (908)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
42.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.