Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold 49ers, while the market favors Cowboys (52%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: 49ers (-4.5)
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold 49ers (75%) · 49ers at 48¢ · $458 held · ends Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
49ers
4
49ers 75%
$457.63
$1.37
48.2¢ → 48¢
+0% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
Neutral49ers at 48%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Cowboys 52%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
38 38791873984189CTR | 49ersavg 48.4¢ | $190.42 | $188.82 | -$1.6 | 48% 879-959 (1838) |
MD mde4life1986 | Cowboysavg 51¢ | $142.29 | $145.08 | +$2.79 | 3% 2-63 (65) |
SN SnakeBallCTR | 49ersavg 48¢ | $108.96 | $108.96 | +$0 | 47% 148-167 (315) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | 49ersavg 47.8¢ | $14.46 | $14.64 | +$0.18 | 48% 424-451 (875) |
Invested
$190.42
Value
$188.82
PnL
-$1.6
Record
48%
879-959 (1838)
Invested
$142.29
Value
$145.08
PnL
+$2.79
Record
3%
2-63 (65)
Invested
$108.96
Value
$108.96
PnL
+$0
Record
47%
148-167 (315)
Invested
$14.46
Value
$14.64
PnL
+$0.18
Record
48%
424-451 (875)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
48.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.