Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (57%). 6 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Patriots vs. Lions: O/U 48.5

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (75%) · Under at 43¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 15

Over57¢Under43¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 75%

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

-$36.66

Smart Money Entry

45.4¢ → 42.5¢

-6% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 43%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 8 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Over 57%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over57%

Under43%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under6 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares2,765

Combined PnL-$36.52

Over2 traders

Total Value$7.59

Total Shares13

Combined PnL-$0.14

Under — 75%Over — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Mature

32h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888CTR	Underavg 45.5¢	$921.57	$880	-$28.98	53% 1883-1643 (3526)
HI hi774cCTR	Underavg 45¢	$329.45	$322.13	-$7.32	26% 249-694 (943)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100	Underavg 45¢	$11.44	$11.18	-$0.25	56% 3922-3103 (7025)
38 38791873984189<$100	Overavg 57¢	$6.27	$6.22	-$0.05	48% 3948-4293 (8241)
OD Oddstorm<$100	Overavg 60¢	$1.46	$1.37	-$0.09	35% 138-251 (389)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Underavg 40¢	$0.97	$1.07	+$0.1	50% 2174-2194 (4368)
IM imjustkenisgheyCTR<$100	Underavg 44¢	$1.05	$1.02	-$0.04	48% 68-75 (143)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100	Underavg 45¢	$1.02	$1	-$0.02	48% 469-508 (977)

VeryLucky888CTR

Under

Invested

$921.57

Value

$880

PnL

-$28.98

Record

53%

1883-1643 (3526)

hi774cCTR

Under

Invested

$329.45

Value

$322.13

PnL

-$7.32

Record

26%

249-694 (943)

HomeRunHazardCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$11.44

Value

$11.18

PnL

-$0.25

Record

56%

3922-3103 (7025)

38791873984189<$100

Over

Invested

$6.27

Value

$6.22

PnL

-$0.05

Record

48%

3948-4293 (8241)

Oddstorm<$100

Over

Invested

$1.46

Value

$1.37

PnL

-$0.09

Record

35%

138-251 (389)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$0.97

Value

$1.07

PnL

+$0.1

Record

50%

2174-2194 (4368)

imjustkenisgheyCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.05

Value

$1.02

PnL

-$0.04

Record

48%

68-75 (143)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.02

Value

PnL

-$0.02

Record

48%

469-508 (977)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 43%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 8 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Over 57%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Mature

32h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance44.7%

42.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$123.57

Max Loss

-$100.00

223.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.