Orleans: Otto Virtanen vs Nishesh Basavareddy

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Nishesh Basavareddy (44%) · Nishesh Basavareddy at 51¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 22

Otto Virtanen50¢Nishesh Basavareddy50¢Ends Sun, Nov 22, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Nishesh Basavareddy

Consensus Traders

Nishesh Basavareddy 44%

Total Value

$2.6K

Combined PnL

$20.91

Smart Money Entry

52.6¢ → 50.5¢

-4% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNishesh Basavareddy at 51%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Nishesh Basavareddy

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Otto Virtanen50%

Nishesh Basavareddy51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Nishesh Basavareddy4 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares2,839

Combined PnL+$5.35

Otto Virtanen5 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares2,166

Combined PnL+$15.55

Nishesh Basavareddy — 44%Otto Virtanen — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

14% of non-arb traders are on Nishesh Basavareddy. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOtto Virtanen 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrOtto Virtanen 83% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedOtto Virtanen 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Otto Virtanen 83% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xde5d9a7dce9faf8df086c066b698375c1d2d9192	Nishesh Basavareddyavg 53.7¢	$950	$950	-$0	46% 19-22 (41)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Otto Virtanenavg 49¢	$894.82	$904.15	+$9.33	50% 2835-2864 (5699)
GC GC-P	Nishesh Basavareddyavg 51¢	$216.75	$218.88	+$2.13	42% 547-747 (1294)
NM NM-P	Nishesh Basavareddyavg 51¢	$216.75	$218.88	+$2.13	59% 3948-2729 (6677)
0xheavy888CTR	Otto Virtanenavg 46.2¢	$138.75	$141.22	+$5.44	56% 663-529 (1192)
AN AnonymousUsername	Nishesh Basavareddyavg 50¢	$110.3	$111.41	+$1.1	44% 91-114 (205)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Otto Virtanenavg 47¢	$14.57	$14.88	+$0.31	50% 2174-2194 (4368)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Otto Virtanenavg 44¢	$4.84	$5.28	+$0.44	38% 1339-2199 (3538)
nigiri99CTR<$100	Otto Virtanenavg 47¢	$1.41	$1.44	+$0.03	50% 747-737 (1484)

0xde5d9a7dce9faf8df086c066b698375c1d2d9192

Nishesh Basavareddy

Invested

$950

Value

$950

PnL

-$0

Record

46%

19-22 (41)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Otto Virtanen

Invested

$894.82

Value

$904.15

PnL

+$9.33

Record

50%

2835-2864 (5699)

GC-P

Nishesh Basavareddy

Invested

$216.75

Value

$218.88

PnL

+$2.13

Record

42%

547-747 (1294)

NM-P

Nishesh Basavareddy

Invested

$216.75

Value

$218.88

PnL

+$2.13

Record

59%

3948-2729 (6677)

0xheavy888CTR

Otto Virtanen

Invested

$138.75

Value

$141.22

PnL

+$5.44

Record

56%

663-529 (1192)

AnonymousUsername

Nishesh Basavareddy

Invested

$110.3

Value

$111.41

PnL

+$1.1

Record

44%

91-114 (205)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Otto Virtanen

Invested

$14.57

Value

$14.88

PnL

+$0.31

Record

50%

2174-2194 (4368)

VenusianCTR<$100

Otto Virtanen

Invested

$4.84

Value

$5.28

PnL

+$0.44

Record

38%

1339-2199 (3538)

nigiri99CTR<$100

Otto Virtanen

Invested

$1.41

Value

$1.44

PnL

+$0.03

Record

50%

747-737 (1484)

Research grade

NeutralNishesh Basavareddy at 51%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Nishesh Basavareddy

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

14% of non-arb traders are on Nishesh Basavareddy. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOtto Virtanen 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrOtto Virtanen 83% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedOtto Virtanen 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Otto Virtanen 83% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Nishesh Basavareddy wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.7%

50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$89.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

189.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.