Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Panthers, while the market favors Saints (53%). 5 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Panthers vs. Saints
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Panthers (83%) · Panthers at 48¢ · $635 held · ends Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
Panthers
6
Panthers 83%
$635.33
-$37.68
50.9¢ → 47.5¢
-7% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralPanthers at 48%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors Saints 53%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+16 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 92%
Freshness
Fresh
12h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on Panthers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888CTR | Panthersavg 51¢ | $459 | $422.76 | -$26.91 | 47% 171-192 (363) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Panthersavg 51¢ | $160.97 | $150.47 | -$10.5 | 48% 603-645 (1248) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100 | Panthersavg 50¢ | $25 | $24 | -$1.25 | 34% 147-291 (438) |
OD OddstormCTR<$100 | Panthersavg 47¢ | $14.57 | $14.88 | +$0.31 | 7% 7-88 (95) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Panthersavg 51¢ | $12.86 | $12.93 | -$0.01 | 47% 329-371 (700) |
ST stackingsats<$100 | Saintsavg 49¢ | $9.61 | $10.29 | +$0.69 | 1% 1-179 (180) |
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$459
Value
$422.76
PnL
-$26.91
Record
47%
171-192 (363)
Invested
$160.97
Value
$150.47
PnL
-$10.5
Record
48%
603-645 (1248)
Invested
$25
Value
$24
PnL
-$1.25
Record
34%
147-291 (438)
Invested
$14.57
Value
$14.88
PnL
+$0.31
Record
7%
7-88 (95)
Invested
$12.86
Value
$12.93
PnL
-$0.01
Record
47%
329-371 (700)
Invested
$9.61
Value
$10.29
PnL
+$0.69
Record
1%
1-179 (180)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
47.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.