Patriots vs. Lions: O/U 52.5

9 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold Over (47%) · Over at 57¢ · $14K held · ended Nov 15

Over57¢Under43¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 47%

Total Value

$14.0K

Combined PnL

$743.58

Smart Money Entry

49.7¢ → 57.5¢

+16% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 57%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

9 of 19 top traders (47%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over57%

Under43%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over9 traders

Total Value$8.4K

Total Shares14,685

Combined PnL+$1.1K

Under10 traders

Total Value$5.6K

Total Shares12,081

Combined PnL-$330.1

Over — 47%Under — 53%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

47% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrOver 60% · 10

Aligned

Top 1000Under 53% · 15

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PR primm	Overavg 57¢	$2.8K	$2.8K	+$24.27	59% 1182-828 (2010)
MR MrClaude11	Overavg 46¢	$2.1K	$2.6K	+$522.55	— 2-9 (11)
MA Mastermoney	Overavg 47¢	$1.7K	$2.1K	+$384.28	9% 15-145 (160)
AN Anon455CTR	Underavg 48¢	$1.9K	$1.7K	-$222.84	49% 482-498 (980)
RN1CTR	Underavg 43¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$12.45	54% 6017-5091 (11108)
DR DreamwireCTR	Underavg 54.5¢	$1.1K	$1.0K	-$50	77% 271-81 (352)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Underavg 53¢	$879.72	$863.12	-$16.6	51% 568-545 (1113)
LI LightParadox	Overavg 45¢	$383.34	$489.82	+$106.48	37% 1336-2230 (3566)
SU SunlineTickerCTR	Underavg 54¢	$428.22	$412.36	-$15.86	69% 1738-776 (2514)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382	Overavg 43¢	$189.63	$211.67	+$22.05	48% 471-508 (979)
38 38791873984189CTR	Underavg 44.6¢	$152.13	$145.06	-$7.08	48% 3953-4307 (8260)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Underavg 53¢	$142.57	$139.88	-$2.69	56% 3922-3103 (7025)
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100	Underavg 42¢	$83.98	$84.98	+$1	50% 4044-4051 (8095)
tradecraft<$100	Overavg 43¢	$60.53	$67.57	+$7.04	34% 465-896 (1361)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Underavg 52¢	$54.08	$54.08	+$0	50% 2841-2879 (5720)
CM cm2897<$100	Overavg 48¢	$52.62	$52.52	-$0.1	49% 1233-1278 (2511)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Underavg 55.8¢	$52.99	$49.4	-$3.59	50% 2177-2197 (4374)
NA NatoAlfista<$100	Overavg 45¢	$25.38	$32.43	+$7.05	43% 244-324 (568)
NO NotJump<$100	Overavg 57¢	$27.72	$27.77	+$0.05	50% 1122-1124 (2246)

primm

Over

Invested

$2,767.13

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$24.27

Record

59%

1182-828 (2010)

MrClaude11

Over

Invested

$2,090.18

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$522.55

Record

—

2-9 (11)

Mastermoney

Over

Invested

$1,720.13

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$384.28

Record

15-145 (160)

Anon455CTR

Under

Invested

$1,944.77

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$222.84

Record

49%

482-498 (980)

RN1CTR

Under

Invested

$1,103.4

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$12.45

Record

54%

6017-5091 (11108)

DreamwireCTR

Under

Invested

$1,089.99

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$50

Record

77%

271-81 (352)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Under

Invested

$879.72

Value

$863.12

PnL

-$16.6

Record

51%

568-545 (1113)

LightParadox

Over

Invested

$383.34

Value

$489.82

PnL

+$106.48

Record

37%

1336-2230 (3566)

SunlineTickerCTR

Under

Invested

$428.22

Value

$412.36

PnL

-$15.86

Record

69%

1738-776 (2514)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382

Over

Invested

$189.63

Value

$211.67

PnL

+$22.05

Record

48%

471-508 (979)

38791873984189CTR

Under

Invested

$152.13

Value

$145.06

PnL

-$7.08

Record

48%

3953-4307 (8260)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Under

Invested

$142.57

Value

$139.88

PnL

-$2.69

Record

56%

3922-3103 (7025)

6512395314597884CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$83.98

Value

$84.98

PnL

+$1

Record

50%

4044-4051 (8095)

tradecraft<$100

Over

Invested

$60.53

Value

$67.57

PnL

+$7.04

Record

34%

465-896 (1361)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$54.08

Value

$54.08

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

2841-2879 (5720)

cm2897<$100

Over

Invested

$52.62

Value

$52.52

PnL

-$0.1

Record

49%

1233-1278 (2511)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$52.99

Value

$49.4

PnL

-$3.59

Record

50%

2177-2197 (4374)

NatoAlfista<$100

Over

Invested

$25.38

Value

$32.43

PnL

+$7.05

Record

43%

244-324 (568)

NotJump<$100

Over

Invested

$27.72

Value

$27.77

PnL

+$0.05

Record

50%

1122-1124 (2246)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 57%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

9 of 19 top traders (47%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

47% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrOver 60% · 10

Aligned

Top 1000Under 53% · 15

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance59.7%

57.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$67.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

167.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.