Spread: Spurs (-16.5)
4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Jazz (50%) · Jazz at 52¢ · $11K held · ends Nov 15
⚠️
Avoid
Jazz
8
Jazz 50%
$10.5K
-$48.62
50.1¢ → 51.5¢
+3% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidJazz at 52%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
-10 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on Jazz. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh | Jazzavg 50¢ | $4.7K | $4.7K | +$46.94 | 50% 2835-2864 (5699) |
HG hgawxCTR | Spursavg 50¢ | $4.5K | $4.3K | -$90.22 | 9% 5-52 (57) |
MO monkeymashingkeyboard | Jazzavg 51¢ | $1.0K | $1.0K | -$9.22 | 53% 554-484 (1038) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Spursavg 49¢ | $185.43 | $185.43 | -$0 | 56% 3922-3103 (7025) |
 shekelmeister | Jazzavg 49¢ | $150.11 | $156.24 | +$6.13 | 47% 427-476 (903) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Spursavg 50¢ | $132.83 | $126.32 | -$3.78 | 53% 1883-1643 (3526) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Jazzavg 49¢ | $39.79 | $41.42 | +$1.62 | 47% 1186-1358 (2544) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Spursavg 51¢ | $2.55 | $2.45 | -$0.1 | 43% 851-1135 (1986) |
Invested
$4,694.26
Value
$4.7K
PnL
+$46.94
Record
50%
2835-2864 (5699)
Invested
$4,511
Value
$4.3K
PnL
-$90.22
Record
9%
5-52 (57)
Invested
$1,027.36
Value
$1.0K
PnL
-$9.22
Record
53%
554-484 (1038)
Invested
$185.43
Value
$185.43
PnL
-$0
Record
56%
3922-3103 (7025)
shekelmeisterInvested
$150.11
Value
$156.24
PnL
+$6.13
Record
47%
427-476 (903)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$132.83
Value
$126.32
PnL
-$3.78
Record
53%
1883-1643 (3526)
Invested
$39.79
Value
$41.42
PnL
+$1.62
Record
47%
1186-1358 (2544)
Invested
$2.55
Value
$2.45
PnL
-$0.1
Record
43%
851-1135 (1986)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.