Spread: Nebraska Cornhuskers (-9.5)

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Nebraska Cornhuskers (57%) · Nebraska Cornhuskers at 54¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 15

Nebraska Cornhuskers54¢Boise State Broncos46¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Nebraska Cornhuskers

Consensus Traders

Nebraska Cornhuskers 57%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.4K

Combined PnL

$23.64

Smart Money Entry

52¢ → 53.5¢

+3% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidNebraska Cornhuskers at 54%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Nebraska Cornhuskers

4 of 7 top traders (57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Nebraska Cornhuskers54%

Boise State Broncos47%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Boise State Broncos3 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares4,409

Combined PnL-$43.86

Nebraska Cornhuskers4 traders

Total Value$3.0K

Total Shares5,598

Combined PnL+$67.5

Boise State Broncos — 43%Nebraska Cornhuskers — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Nebraska Cornhuskers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNebraska Cornhuskers 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Nebraska Cornhuskers 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FeedTheBigBirdCTR	Boise State Broncosavg 48¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	-$43.95	59% 32-22 (54)
HO HomeRunHazard	Nebraska Cornhuskersavg 52¢	$1.6K	$1.7K	+$32.65	56% 3922-3103 (7025)
HI hi774cARB<$100	Boise State Broncosavg 48¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	-$13.71	26% 249-694 (943)
└ Boise State Broncos leg	Boise State Broncosavg 48¢	$970.85	$950.63	-$20.23
└ Nebraska Cornhuskers leg	Nebraska Cornhuskersavg 52¢	$338.78	$345.3	+$6.52
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Nebraska Cornhuskersavg 52.1¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$30.98	50% 2840-2873 (5713)
SE sentrio	Nebraska Cornhuskersavg 52¢	$173.47	$176.8	+$3.34	41% 1174-1671 (2845)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100	Nebraska Cornhuskersavg 52¢	$27.56	$28.09	+$0.53	52% 419-387 (806)
BA Bagwell306CTR<$100	Boise State Broncosavg 46¢	$4.14	$4.23	+$0.09	37% 94-159 (253)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Boise State Broncosavg 47¢	$2.35	$2.35	-$0	43% 852-1137 (1989)

FeedTheBigBirdCTR

Boise State Broncos

Invested

$2,109.68

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$43.95

Record

59%

32-22 (54)

HomeRunHazard

Nebraska Cornhuskers

Invested

$1,641.39

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$32.65

Record

56%

3922-3103 (7025)

hi774cARB<$100

Boise State Broncos

Invested

$1,309.63

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$13.71

Record

26%

249-694 (943)

Both legs:

Boise State Broncos$970.8548¢-$20.23

Nebraska Cornhuskers$338.7852¢+$6.52

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Nebraska Cornhuskers

Invested

$1,112.11

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$30.98

Record

50%

2840-2873 (5713)

sentrio

Nebraska Cornhuskers

Invested

$173.47

Value

$176.8

PnL

+$3.34

Record

41%

1174-1671 (2845)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100

Nebraska Cornhuskers

Invested

$27.56

Value

$28.09

PnL

+$0.53

Record

52%

419-387 (806)

Bagwell306CTR<$100

Boise State Broncos

Invested

$4.14

Value

$4.23

PnL

+$0.09

Record

37%

94-159 (253)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Boise State Broncos

Invested

$2.35

Value

$2.35

PnL

-$0

Record

43%

852-1137 (1989)

Research grade

AvoidNebraska Cornhuskers at 54%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Nebraska Cornhuskers

4 of 7 top traders (57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Nebraska Cornhuskers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNebraska Cornhuskers 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Nebraska Cornhuskers 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Nebraska Cornhuskers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.7%

53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$79.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

179.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.