Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Texans, while the market favors Browns (51%). 3 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Texans (-4.5)

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Texans (50%) · Texans at 50¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 15

Texans50¢Browns50¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Texans

Consensus Traders

Texans 50%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.4K

Combined PnL

-$5.01

Smart Money Entry

50.8¢ → 49.5¢

-3% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralTexans at 50%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Texans

3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Browns 51%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Texans50%

Browns51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Browns3 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares2,802

Combined PnL+$18.38

Texans3 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares3,105

Combined PnL-$23.39

Browns — 50%Texans — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Texans. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Browns) and the top 1000 (5 on Texans) disagree here.

whaleBrowns 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrBrowns 100% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedBrowns 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Texans 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
nigiri99	Brownsavg 49.4¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$15.62	52% 499-463 (962)
DA darkumbreon88CTR	Texansavg 51¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$22.92	62% 1023-638 (1661)
38 38791873984189CTR	Texansavg 50.3¢	$502.25	$400.54	-$0.69	48% 2922-3218 (6140)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Texansavg 50¢	$245	$250	+$5	60% 3726-2536 (6262)
└ Texans leg	Texansavg 50¢	$125	$125	+$0
└ Browns leg	Brownsavg 48¢	$120	$125	+$5
GC GC-PARB<$100	Texansavg 50¢	$160.08	$161.54	+$1.46	36% 317-553 (870)
└ Texans leg	Texansavg 50¢	$125	$125	+$0
└ Browns leg	Brownsavg 48¢	$35.08	$36.54	+$1.46
VeryLucky888<$100	Brownsavg 48¢	$58.38	$40.73	+$2.03	53% 1179-1029 (2208)
DV dv-pm<$100	Brownsavg 49¢	$35.77	$36.5	+$0.73	40% 25-38 (63)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Texansavg 49.8¢	$13.01	$13.23	+$0.22	49% 1329-1376 (2705)

nigiri99

Browns

Invested

$1,308.38

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$15.62

Record

52%

499-463 (962)

darkumbreon88CTR

Texans

Invested

$1,168.85

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$22.92

Record

62%

1023-638 (1661)

38791873984189CTR

Texans

Invested

$502.25

Value

$400.54

PnL

-$0.69

Record

48%

2922-3218 (6140)

NM-PARB<$100

Texans

Invested

$245

Value

$250

PnL

+$5

Record

60%

3726-2536 (6262)

Both legs:

Invested

$160.08

Value

$161.54

PnL

+$1.46

Record

36%

317-553 (870)

Both legs:

Texans$12550¢+$0

Browns$35.0848¢+$1.46

VeryLucky888<$100

Browns

Invested

$58.38

Value

$40.73

PnL

+$2.03

Record

53%

1179-1029 (2208)

dv-pm<$100

Browns

Invested

$35.77

Value

$36.5

PnL

+$0.73

Record

40%

25-38 (63)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Texans

Invested

$13.01

Value

$13.23

PnL

+$0.22

Record

49%

1329-1376 (2705)

Research grade

NeutralTexans at 50%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Texans

3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Browns 51%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Texans. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Browns) and the top 1000 (5 on Texans) disagree here.

whaleBrowns 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrBrowns 100% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedBrowns 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Texans 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Texans wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance51.7%

49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$93.24

Max Loss

-$100.00

193.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.