Jaguars vs. Titans
1 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Jaguars (17%) · Jaguars at 83¢ · $965 held · ends Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
Jaguars
6
Jaguars 17%
1 arb excluded
$965.24
$4.48
Research grade
NeutralJaguars at 83%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 6 top traders (17%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Cooling
-23 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Mature
23h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
17% of non-arb traders are on Jaguars. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
38 38791873984189 | Jaguarsavg 81.7¢ | $535.76 | $474.19 | +$3.95 | 48% 603-645 (1248) |
SN SnakeBallCTR | Titansavg 17¢ | $189.14 | $194.7 | +$5.56 | 46% 124-145 (269) |
OD OddstormARB<$100 | Jaguarsavg 81¢ | $154.84 | $156.57 | +$2.36 | 7% 7-88 (95) |
| └ Jaguars leg | Jaguarsavg 81¢ | $101.25 | $102.5 | +$1.88 | |
| └ Titans leg | Titansavg 17.8¢ | $53.59 | $54.07 | +$0.49 | |
BA BayupatiCTR<$100 | Titansavg 18¢ | $52.7 | $52.7 | -$1.46 | 4% 5-120 (125) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Titansavg 18¢ | $42.24 | $42.24 | -$1.17 | 47% 171-192 (363) |
IC ic4creamCTR<$100 | Titansavg 18.9¢ | $37.81 | $35.08 | -$2.73 | 0% 1-438 (439) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Titansavg 17¢ | $1.36 | $9.76 | +$0.34 | 47% 329-371 (700) |
Invested
$535.76
Value
$474.19
PnL
+$3.95
Record
48%
603-645 (1248)
Invested
$189.14
Value
$194.7
PnL
+$5.56
Record
46%
124-145 (269)
Invested
$154.84
Value
$156.57
PnL
+$2.36
Record
7%
7-88 (95)
Both legs:
Invested
$52.7
Value
$52.7
PnL
-$1.46
Record
4%
5-120 (125)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$42.24
Value
$42.24
PnL
-$1.17
Record
47%
171-192 (363)
Invested
$37.81
Value
$35.08
PnL
-$2.73
Record
0%
1-438 (439)
Invested
$1.36
Value
$9.76
PnL
+$0.34
Record
47%
329-371 (700)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
82.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.