Spread: Saints (-2.5)

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Panthers (40%) · Panthers at 55¢ · $10K held · ends Nov 15

Saints46¢Panthers54¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Panthers

Consensus Traders

Panthers 40%

Total Value

$9.7K

Combined PnL

-$11.79

Smart Money Entry

53.4¢ → 54.5¢

+2% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralPanthers at 55%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Panthers

4 of 10 top traders (40%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Saints46%

Panthers55%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Panthers4 traders

Total Value$5.1K

Total Shares9,362

Combined PnL+$55

Saints6 traders

Total Value$4.6K

Total Shares10,042

Combined PnL-$66.8

Panthers — 40%Saints — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Panthersavg 54¢	$3.7K	$3.8K	+$34.63	50% 2835-2864 (5699)
38 38791873984189CTR	Saintsavg 46.1¢	$3.3K	$3.2K	-$38.3	48% 3948-4293 (8241)
VeryLucky888CTR	Saintsavg 48.6¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$35.89	53% 1883-1643 (3526)
nigiri99	Panthersavg 51¢	$837.93	$854.36	+$16.43	50% 747-737 (1484)
SU SunlineTicker	Panthersavg 53¢	$417.64	$421.58	+$3.94	69% 1738-775 (2513)
NM NM-PCTR	Saintsavg 47¢	$117.5	$120	+$2.5	59% 3948-2729 (6677)
GC GC-PCTR	Saintsavg 47¢	$117.5	$120	+$2.5	42% 547-747 (1294)
BO BoomLaLaCTR	Saintsavg 47¢	$117.5	$120	+$2.5	39% 234-370 (604)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Saintsavg 46¢	$9.6	$9.5	-$0.1	50% 2174-2194 (4368)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100	Panthersavg 52¢	$2.17	$2.17	+$0	48% 469-508 (977)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Panthers

Invested

$3,740.53

Value

$3.8K

PnL

+$34.63

Record

50%

2835-2864 (5699)

38791873984189CTR

Saints

Invested

$3,254.16

Value

$3.2K

PnL

-$38.3

Record

48%

3948-4293 (8241)

VeryLucky888CTR

Saints

Invested

$1,124.76

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$35.89

Record

53%

1883-1643 (3526)

nigiri99

Panthers

Invested

$837.93

Value

$854.36

PnL

+$16.43

Record

50%

747-737 (1484)

SunlineTicker

Panthers

Invested

$417.64

Value

$421.58

PnL

+$3.94

Record

69%

1738-775 (2513)

NM-PCTR

Saints

Invested

$117.5

Value

$120

PnL

+$2.5

Record

59%

3948-2729 (6677)

GC-PCTR

Saints

Invested

$117.5

Value

$120

PnL

+$2.5

Record

42%

547-747 (1294)

BoomLaLaCTR

Saints

Invested

$117.5

Value

$120

PnL

+$2.5

Record

39%

234-370 (604)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Saints

Invested

$9.6

Value

$9.5

PnL

-$0.1

Record

50%

2174-2194 (4368)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100

Panthers

Invested

$2.17

Value

$2.17

PnL

+$0

Record

48%

469-508 (977)

Research grade

NeutralPanthers at 55%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Panthers

4 of 10 top traders (40%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Panthers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.7%

54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$76.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

176.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.